Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010953
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2007
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD
   ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MON MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM
   MOVES INTO ONTARIO...AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD
   FROM SWRN CANADA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
   THIS TROUGH...A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY
   EXPAND SWD FROM THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...SRN NV/FAR SWRN UT/FAR NWRN AZ...
   AS MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES LATER TODAY...A DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH
   TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. WARM AND QUITE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
   WITH LOW-LEVEL SWLY TRAJECTORIES FROM THE MOJAVE DESERT. WITH
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10
   PERCENT WILL BE COMMON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/01/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010956
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2007
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN AZ...NRN NM...FAR SERN
   CO...FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY TUE MORNING. LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER ERN WY...WITH THIS
   SURFACE LOW TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. A DRY LINE
   WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A VERY WARM/DRY
   AIR MASS BEHIND IT WWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. A SHARP COLD FRONT
   WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY
   NIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN AZ...NRN NM...FAR SERN CO...FAR
   NWRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   STRENGTHENING W/SWLY FLOW TO THE S OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH SPRING GREENUP MAY
   MITIGATE THE THREAT IN SOME AREAS...MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE
   CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS E/NEWD FROM THE SWRN
   DESERTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL
   BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG GIVEN THE NLY TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...A
   WIDESPREAD AREA OF SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH SHOULD
   DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE
   THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. WITH TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 80S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND 60S/70S FARTHER W...CRITICALLY
   LOW RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON. LOCALLY BREEZY
   CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS...THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
   THE N/NW EARLY TUE.
   
   ...CNTRL AZ AND SRN NM...
   IT WILL BE WARM AND QUITE DRY...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER
   COMPARED TO THE CRITICAL AREA. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
   70S AND 80S...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS SHOULD ONLY REACH 15 TO 20 MPH...WHICH MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SRN UT AND FAR SWRN CO...
   LATEST MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
   WINDS THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION. NAM/NAMKF ARE STRONGER
   WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH VERSUS THE GFS WHICH IS
   WEAKER FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. NEVERTHELESS...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN MARGINAL /AROUND 15 PERCENT/.
   
   ...MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE/ERN OK PANHANDLE
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WITHIN THE CRITICAL
   AREA...WITH A VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY SWLY WINDS BEHIND AN
   EWD MOVING DRY LINE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER
   THE PAST WEEK...SPRING GREEN-UP...AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
   OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/01/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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