Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 010953
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MON MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO ONTARIO...AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD
FROM SWRN CANADA ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THIS TROUGH...A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY
EXPAND SWD FROM THE NRN INTO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN.
...SRN NV/FAR SWRN UT/FAR NWRN AZ...
AS MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES LATER TODAY...A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH
TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. WARM AND QUITE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW-LEVEL SWLY TRAJECTORIES FROM THE MOJAVE DESERT. WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S...RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON.
..GRAMS.. 04/01/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 010956
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN AZ...NRN NM...FAR SERN
CO...FAR NWRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN KS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY TUE MORNING. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER ERN WY...WITH THIS
SURFACE LOW TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. A DRY LINE
WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A VERY WARM/DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND IT WWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY
NIGHT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN AZ...NRN NM...FAR SERN CO...FAR
NWRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN KS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
STRENGTHENING W/SWLY FLOW TO THE S OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH SPRING GREENUP MAY
MITIGATE THE THREAT IN SOME AREAS...MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH ADVECTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS E/NEWD FROM THE SWRN
DESERTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG GIVEN THE NLY TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND 60S/70S FARTHER W...CRITICALLY
LOW RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON. LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...THE PASSAGE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
THE N/NW EARLY TUE.
...CNTRL AZ AND SRN NM...
IT WILL BE WARM AND QUITE DRY...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER
COMPARED TO THE CRITICAL AREA. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND 80S...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD ONLY REACH 15 TO 20 MPH...WHICH MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
...SRN UT AND FAR SWRN CO...
LATEST MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF
WINDS THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION. NAM/NAMKF ARE STRONGER
WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH VERSUS THE GFS WHICH IS
WEAKER FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. NEVERTHELESS...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL /AROUND 15 PERCENT/.
...MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE/ERN OK PANHANDLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WITHIN THE CRITICAL
AREA...WITH A VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS AND GUSTY SWLY WINDS BEHIND AN
EWD MOVING DRY LINE. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST WEEK...SPRING GREEN-UP...AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 04/01/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...