Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 180836
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...NWRN/W-CNTRL NM...EXTREME
SERN UT...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SWING
ENEWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS THU MORNING. AN INTENSE JET /90+ MPH AT 500 MB/ ALONG
THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NRN AZ/ERN UT THIS
AFTERNOON. A SHARP COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS/SWRN DESERTS AROUND 19/00Z. IN
THE SOUTHEAST...SRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EJECT EWD REACHING THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY THIS EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ...NWRN/W-CNTRL NM...EXTREME
SERN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
GUSTY LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS AS NOTED IN UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS OVER SRN
NV EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND BE
THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR A CRITICAL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
INTENSE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM IN NERN AZ WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD CO-EXIST.
HERE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE MORE COMMON. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR
A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL/SRN FL...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE AROUND NOON ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY IMPULSE APPROACHES. SUSTAINED
W/SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORIES...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WAS QUITE
DRY PER TUESDAY EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND LATEST GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES AOB 0.50 INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 80S...CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT WILL
BE LIKELY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST.
...SERN AZ INTO S-CNTRL NM...
SE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS...WARMER AND RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED VERSUS TUESDAY AS W/SWLY WINDS INCREASE.
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
FAR SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS MAY
REACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THIS TIME FRAME...OVERALL DURATION
JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
..GRAMS.. 04/18/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 180954
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT N/NEWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS IT IMPINGES ON A RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE CA
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
...SRN/ERN NM...
MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE DRY THU AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO AROUND 6 TO 12 PERCENT. DESPITE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WINDS SHOULD BE MODEST AS OVERALL FLOW REGIME WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NRN PLAINS CYCLONE MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH 15 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 04/18/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...