Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180836
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...NWRN/W-CNTRL NM...EXTREME
   SERN UT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SWING
   ENEWD AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS THU MORNING. AN INTENSE JET /90+ MPH AT 500 MB/ ALONG
   THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NRN AZ/ERN UT THIS
   AFTERNOON. A SHARP COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
   MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS/SWRN DESERTS AROUND 19/00Z. IN
   THE SOUTHEAST...SRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL QUICKLY EJECT EWD REACHING THE ATLANTIC
   COAST BY THIS EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ...NWRN/W-CNTRL NM...EXTREME
   SERN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   GUSTY LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS AS NOTED IN UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS OVER SRN
   NV EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND BE
   THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR A CRITICAL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
   INTENSE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOGOLLON
   RIM IN NERN AZ WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD CO-EXIST.
   HERE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH GUSTS IN
   EXCESS OF 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
   BE MORE COMMON. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
   THE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR
   A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AFTER FRONTAL
   PASSAGE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL/SRN FL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ABRUPTLY INCREASE AROUND NOON ACROSS THE FL
   PENINSULA AS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY IMPULSE APPROACHES. SUSTAINED
   W/SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE
   ERN GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORIES...THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WAS QUITE
   DRY PER TUESDAY EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND LATEST GPS
   PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES AOB 0.50 INCHES. WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE
   AGAIN IN THE LOWER 80S...CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT WILL
   BE LIKELY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST.
   
   ...SERN AZ INTO S-CNTRL NM...
   SE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS...WARMER AND RELATIVELY DRIER
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED VERSUS TUESDAY AS W/SWLY WINDS INCREASE.
   WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...RH VALUES WILL
   FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
   FAR SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING MORE
   SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS MAY
   REACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THIS TIME FRAME...OVERALL DURATION
   JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
   A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/18/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180954
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT N/NEWD
   ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS IT IMPINGES ON A RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER
   VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE CA
   COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
   AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
   WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...SRN/ERN NM...
   MODEL FORECASTS ARE QUITE DRY THU AFTERNOON WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
   TO AROUND 6 TO 12 PERCENT. DESPITE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...WINDS SHOULD BE MODEST AS OVERALL FLOW REGIME WEAKENS
   THROUGH THE DAY WITH NRN PLAINS CYCLONE MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
   REGION. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH 15 MPH DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/18/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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