Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190955
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 AM CDT THU APR 19 2007
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS
   WITH A SLOW EWD SHIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
   DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. FARTHER W...MEAN RIDGE
   WILL BUILD NWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT
   LAKES...AS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS N/NEWD ACROSS
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN MT WILL WEAKEN
   AS CYCLONE BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. N/S ORIENTED PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT WILL ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE DRYLINE AS IT MARCHES E ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED
   OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
   
   AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO W TX LATER THIS
   MORNING...WLY FLOW WILL DOMINANT TODAY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NM.
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF COOLING BEHIND THE
   FRONT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
   THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...RATHER
   LOW RH VALUES /AROUND 6 TO 12 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE NRN
   ROCKIES CYCLONE LIFTS N/NEWD. DESPITE THIS WEAKENING...STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20
   TO 25 MPH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A 3-4 HR DURATION OF OVERLAP
   BETWEEN CRITICALLY LOW RH AND MODERATE WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TO
   OCCUR.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/19/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 AM CDT THU APR 19 2007
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...WRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   CONUS AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS S/SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST
   TOWARDS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. A DOWNSTREAM LEE SURFACE TROUGH
   WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E...UPPER
   RIDGING WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS CENTERED
   ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN AZ...WRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / HIGH FIRE DANGER
   
   A BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF SRN CA
   CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS FRI AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH APPEARS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
   WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO UPPER-LEVEL
   CLOUDINESS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH SWLY TRAJECTORIES
   FROM THE GULF OF CA/ERN PACIFIC. DESPITE THESE POTENTIAL MITIGATING
   FACTORS...MIN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT APPEAR PLAUSIBLE ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...ERN NM...
   DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER E OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE MODEST ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT
   A CRITICAL AREA ATTM. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S WITH RH VALUES OF 6 TO
   12 PERCENT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AS CA SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE MORE EWD. RELATIVELY BRIEF
   DURATION OF MODERATE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD OCCUR TOWARDS EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ...NWRN AZ/SRN NV...
   WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...FORCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN CA SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
   ACROSS THIS REGION. THUS...DAYTIME HEATING WOULD BE TEMPERED WITH
   MARGINALLY LOW RH CONDITIONS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ...NRN FL...
   THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO N/NELY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO WINDS NEAR 15 MPH.
   WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...RH VALUES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT APPEAR
   LIKELY...IMMEDIATELY AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/19/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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