Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 030945
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AZ/NW NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ND/NRN SD/NW MN...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AROUND THE BASE OF WRN
CONUS TROUGH...WITH STRONG W/SWLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF AZ/NM. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL INDUCE DEEPENING OF LEE TROUGH...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - AZ/NW NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS 20-30 MPH/MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT
SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SLC THROUGH SRN NV WILL MOVE E/SE
TODAY EVENTUALLY INTO WRN CO/NRN AZ BY LATE AFTN. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WILL BE ON AVERAGE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD
STILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A TIME TODAY...ESPECIALLY
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. STRONG SFC WINDS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE
MORE MARGINAL RH VALUES...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH
LIKELY GIVEN 50-60 KT WINDS WITHIN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME RELIEF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARD TO THE
DROUGHT...BUT FORECAST FIRE DANGER INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM HIGH TO VERY HIGH TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD IF IGNITIONS OCCUR.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ND/NRN SD/NW MN...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH/LONG TERM DROUGHT
THE INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY ACROSS THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN APPROACH OF WRN STORM
SYSTEM. VERY STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE DAKOTAS. HERE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-35
MPH ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AND WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. RH VALUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTN. THESE VALUES ARE
MARGINAL...BUT THE FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY AND THE COMBINATION OF
WINDY WARM WEATHER WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...NORTHEAST...
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT TODAY ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST...FROM MA/CT/ERN NY THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL
ME AND VT/NH. WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S/60S TO AROUND 70 AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...SOME AREAS WILL HAVE MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW
20 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL ALLOW
30-40 KT WINDS NEAR 850MB TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
..TAYLOR.. 05/03/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 030945
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/AZ/WRN AND CNTRL NM/FAR W
TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
BY FRIDAY...ELONGATED MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT BASIN/NRN CA. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS WRN UT BY LATE
AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE JET MAX SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS SERN CA/AZ/NM.
AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS TOWARD THE PLAINS...LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE WITH STRONG WINDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
WWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...RELAXING GRADIENT SHOULD
DIMINISH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN CA/AZ/WRN AND CNTRL NM/FAR W
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MIN
RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S/90S
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S/90S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THIS WARMTH...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL EASILY FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ON FRIDAY AFTN. IN
ADDITION TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF UPPER/MID LEVEL JET STREAKS. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND/LOW RH VALUES WITH THE PRE-EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL ENHANCE THE
LIKLIHOOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTN.
...NORTHEAST...
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25-30 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NH/VT AND MA.
..TAYLOR.. 05/03/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...