Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030945
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AZ/NW NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ND/NRN SD/NW MN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AROUND THE BASE OF WRN
   CONUS TROUGH...WITH STRONG W/SWLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH
   OF AZ/NM. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
   WILL INDUCE DEEPENING OF LEE TROUGH...WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
   PERSISTING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TODAY.
   ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - AZ/NW NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WLY WINDS 20-30 MPH/MIN RH VALUES
   BELOW 15 PERCENT
   
   SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SLC THROUGH SRN NV WILL MOVE E/SE
   TODAY EVENTUALLY INTO WRN CO/NRN AZ BY LATE AFTN. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
   WILL BE ON AVERAGE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD
   STILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A TIME TODAY...ESPECIALLY
   AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. STRONG SFC WINDS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE
   MORE MARGINAL RH VALUES...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH
   LIKELY GIVEN 50-60 KT WINDS WITHIN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THERE HAS
   BEEN SOME RELIEF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARD TO THE
   DROUGHT...BUT FORECAST FIRE DANGER INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
   FROM HIGH TO VERY HIGH TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS AN INCREASED THREAT
   FOR RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD IF IGNITIONS OCCUR.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ND/NRN SD/NW MN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
   MPH/LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   THE INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY ACROSS THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS...AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN APPROACH OF WRN STORM
   SYSTEM. VERY STRONG SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH THE STRONGEST
   WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE DAKOTAS. HERE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-35
   MPH ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
   TEMPS IN THE 70S. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
   COOLER AND WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. RH VALUES ACROSS THE
   ENTIRE AREA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT...WITH A FEW
   LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTN. THESE VALUES ARE
   MARGINAL...BUT THE FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY AND THE COMBINATION OF
   WINDY WARM WEATHER WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT TODAY ACROSS MANY
   LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST...FROM MA/CT/ERN NY THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL
   ME AND VT/NH. WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S/60S TO AROUND 70 AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S...SOME AREAS WILL HAVE MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW
   20 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH
   SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL ALLOW
   30-40 KT WINDS NEAR 850MB TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/03/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030945
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/AZ/WRN AND CNTRL NM/FAR W
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BY FRIDAY...ELONGATED MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL EXTEND FROM THE CNTRL
   PLAINS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT BASIN/NRN CA. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW
   PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS WRN UT BY LATE
   AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE JET MAX SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS SERN CA/AZ/NM.
   AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS TOWARD THE PLAINS...LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE WITH STRONG WINDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
   WWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...RELAXING GRADIENT SHOULD
   DIMINISH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN CA/AZ/WRN AND CNTRL NM/FAR W
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/MIN
   RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S/90S
   
   MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S/90S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THIS WARMTH...MINIMUM
   RH VALUES WILL EASILY FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ON FRIDAY AFTN. IN
   ADDITION TO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
   GIVEN PROXIMITY OF UPPER/MID LEVEL JET STREAKS. THE COMBINATION OF
   WIND/LOW RH VALUES WITH THE PRE-EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL ENHANCE THE
   LIKLIHOOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTN.
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25-30 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES. BEST
   POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NH/VT AND MA.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/03/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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