Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060916
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN WI/UPPER MI...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKING TYPE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES WITH A RIDGE FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE GREAT
   LAKES AND ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. SURFACE
   LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIFT N/NEWD INTO S-CNTRL
   CANADA WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS
   THE GREAT PLAINS. TO THE W OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL BUILD SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN. IN THE ERN
   CONUS...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SWD OVER THE SERN
   STATES AS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SWD ACROSS THE
   ERN GREAT LAKES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
   
   LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS INVOF THE COASTAL MTNS DEPICT N/NELY
   WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
   SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
   HOWEVER...CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSOLATION
   WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING/DRYING TODAY. ABOVE-NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S ARE EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW RH FROM
   8 TO 15 PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CANYONS/PASSES WILL ENSUE ONCE
   AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MON. HOWEVER...SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE
   QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER MID-LEVEL FLOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN WI/UPPER MI...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   A PARTICULARLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN
   GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS IN
   GAYLORD MI AND BUFFALO NY FROM 05/00Z INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
   AROUND 0.10 INCHES. LATEST GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES ARE
   CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS AOB 0.20 INCHES. AS DAYTIME MIXING ENSUES
   AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES FROM
   10 TO 20 PERCENT ARE LIKELY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES.
   WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET AOA 40 MPH AND A FAVORABLY TIGHT SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...SUSTAINED SELY SURFACE WINDS
   FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NRN PA/NY/NRN NJ...
   MILD TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH WILL BE PREVALENT LATE THIS MORNING
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SWD TOWARDS THE
   REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
   WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25
   PERCENT WILL BE LIKELY. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
   STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GENERALLY DIMINISHING
   WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF DURATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS
   AROUND 20 MPH CO-EXISTING WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH APPEARS
   POSSIBLE...LEADING TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/06/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060954
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AND CNTRL FL/SERN GA/SRN SC...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
   CONUS. LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE ERN
   GREAT LAKES. CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY AND MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WWD LATE IN THE
   PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
   ANCHORED ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANS/SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AND CNTRL FL/SERN GA/SRN SC...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / HIGH KBDI
   
   A DRY AND MILD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES
   EARLY MON BEHIND AN ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
   ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE 70S...RH VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
   APPEAR LIKELY. WITH RATHER STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS TO THE WEST OF
   A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...NELY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO
   25 MPH ARE EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LONG DURATION OF LOW RH / GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS /
   LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
   MON MORNING ACROSS CANYONS/PASSES OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MTNS. THIS
   SHOULD SUPPORT RATHER POOR RH RECOVERY...WITH A LONG DURATION OF
   CRITICALLY LOW RH LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM IN THE 80S
   TO LOWER 90S WITH MIN RH VALUES FROM 6 TO 12 PERCENT. AS HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES FARTHER EWD/WEAKENS...LIGHTER
   OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/06/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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