Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110843
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL AND SRN NV...FAR NW
   AZ...SWRN UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES WITH A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN FROM THE W DUE TO
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND FIELDS AND FIRE
   DANGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TO THE E...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL EXIST
   ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION BUT RH WILL STILL
   REMAIN LOW.  HYBRID LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE FL E COAST WITH
   ISOLATED SHOWERS CNTRL/ERN FL THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE RH REMAINS LOW
   SRN GA INTO THE REST OF FL WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL AND SRN NV...FAR NW AZ...SWRN
   UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...EXTREMELY LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT
   ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FROM THE W. MORNING
   PROFILERS AND VAD WIND PROFILES WERE ALREADY SHOWING 3KM AGL WINDS
   OF 30-40 KTS OVER CA NWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  STRONG HEATING AND
   DEEP MIXING WILL HELP INCREASE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
   SLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RH WILL
   REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TEENS.
   THE RESULT IS CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.
   
   ...SRN GA INTO FL...
   WINDS WILL DECREASE TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND HYBRID
   LOW SPINS OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE E CNTRL FL. EITHER SIDE OF THIS RELATIVE MOIST
   ZONE...RH WILL DECREASE INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE SRN GA AND THE FL
   PANHANDLE...AND PERHAPS DECREASE BELOW 40 PERCENT INLAND SRN FL.
   WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WILL BLOW ACROSS SRN FL...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
   NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS GIVEN MARGINAL RH. WINDS WILL BE
   LIGHTER OVER SRN GA AND THE PANHANDLE...BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
   AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE FIRE GROWTH
   POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...MN INTO WI...
   COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...BUT RH
   WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FROM 25-30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE. NELY
   WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WILL BLOW AS WELL RESULTING IN MARGINAL FIRE
   THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/11/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110930
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL AND ERN NV...MUCH OF
   UT...NWRN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
   SHIFTS EWD AND UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES UPON THE RIDGE. VERY WARM AND
   DRY AIR WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES AS WELL AS
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. STRONG SLY
   WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THIS
   DEEPENING LOW...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
   MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF RAIN FROM
   TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY OVER
   SRN GA INTO FL WHERE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MARGINALLY LOW RH WILL
   HEIGHTEN FIRE THREAT DURING THE DAYTIME.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL AND ERN NV...MUCH OF UT...NWRN
   AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...EXTREMELY LOW RH
   
   PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT STRONG SWLY WINDS MIXING
   TO THE SURFACE. SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS. WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RH IN
   THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AND DRY FUELS TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
   FIRE CONDITIONS. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT AS WELL IN SOME
   AREAS WITH CONTINUED WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
   
   ...ERN CO...WRN NEB...
   FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RH AND
   STRONG SLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WITH TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 AND MIN RH OF 15-20
   PERCENT. COMBINATION OF WEATHER PARAMETERS WOULD NORMALLY YIELD
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...VERY MOIST WINTER AND SPRING
   HAS RESULTED IN LESS THAN CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...ERN ID INTO WRN WY...
   A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD INTO THE
   NRN ROCKIES WITH DEEP SWLY FLOW AROUND WRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE.
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
   WITH RH IN THE TEENS. IT APPEARS WIND/RH COMBINATION WILL BE TOO
   MARGINAL FOR A CRITICAL THREAT AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...MN INTO WI...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
   VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A SLY DIRECTION AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO
   THE W. RH VALUES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH SELY
   WINDS NEAR 10 MPH.
   
   ...SRN GA INTO SRN FL...
   MARGINALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT ALTHOUGH AIR MASS
   SHOULD MODIFY A BIT. MIN RH INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE IS LIKELY
   INTERIOR SRN FL...AS WELL AS OVER SRN GA/NRN FL. GIVEN WARM
   TEMPERATURES...FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE
   AFTERNOON WITH VERY GOOD RH RECOVERY OVER NIGHT.
   
   ...FAR ERN UT/AZ...WRN CO/NM...
   VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER UPPER RIDGE WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES IN PLACE. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY...AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDER MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGH
   TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL
   BE THE WHITE MTNS OF AZ INTO THE W CNTRL MTS OF NM. ONLY ISOLATED
   LIGHTING IS ANTICIPATED...BUT GIVEN VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS AND
   DRY FUELS...FIRE STARTS MAY RESULT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/11/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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