Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090811
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CDT SAT JUN 09 2007
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WHITE MTNS OF AZ/NM NWD TO THE
   FOUR CORNERS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST TO
   OFF THE NRN BAJA CA COAST BY EARLY SUN. DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE WILL
   REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES. S/SELY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP SPREAD ROBUST MOISTURE
   NWD. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WHITE MTNS OF AZ/NM NWD TO THE FOUR
   CORNERS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   THE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG HEATING OVER AZ AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
   OVER NM SHOULD AID IN A NARROW AXIS OF DRY TSTM POTENTIAL THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM THE WHITE MTNS TO THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM ONGOING MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE CONTINENTAL
   DIVIDE EWD IN NM WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S/50S.
   CONTINUED S/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING SHOULD ADVECT THIS
   RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REST OF NM INTO FAR ERN AZ. INTENSE
   DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN A N/S CORRIDOR ALONG AN
   EFFECTIVE DRY LINE. HERE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR
   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
   WINDS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/09/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090943
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 AM CDT SAT JUN 09 2007
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL NV/SWRN UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA CA COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT SLOWLY
   EWD AS UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS S/SEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/WRN GREAT
   BASIN. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WARM/DRY AIR
   MASS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
   FLOW SHOULD BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH THIS AIR MASS IN PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT BASIN. FARTHER EAST...A THREAT FOR DRY TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER
   MOISTURE ADVECTING N/NEWD AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF CNTRL NV/SWRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS PACIFIC NW TROUGH
   APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FARTHER
   N OF THE REGION...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPLY-MIXED
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO
   ENHANCE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S...RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT ARE
   LIKELY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUN
   EVENING/NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING IN ERN NV/WRN UT. RH CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...THROUGH AT LEAST
   THE WRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA SWD TO THE WHITE MTNS OF AZ/NM...
   THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH VERY
   WARM TEMPERATURES LOCATED TO THE W/SW AND ROBUST MOISTURE LOCATED TO
   THE E/SE. A THREAT FOR HIGH-BASED/DRY TSTMS OUGHT TO CONTINUE IN
   THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
   INDICATE SOMEWHAT LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE VERSUS DAY 1. GIVEN THIS
   AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EFFECTS OF CONVECTION ON DAY 1...WILL
   REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL DRY TSTM AREA ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/09/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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