Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100828
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN NV/WRN UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA CA COAST WILL BEGIN
   TO EJECT SLOWLY EWD AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INLAND ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NW. IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. FARTHER
   DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   PLAINS. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SC COASTAL
   PLAINS WILL SINK SLOWLY SWWD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BECOMES
   QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE FL PANHANDLE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF ERN NV/WRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL INCREASE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
   NW. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF THE
   REGION...ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND DEEP MIXING. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE
   LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW
   DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY /GENERALLY IN THE 80S/. WITH DEW
   POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WIDESPREAD RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12
   PERCENT WILL OCCUR.
   
   ...SWRN WY SWD TO E-CNTRL UT/W-CNTRL CO...
   WITH W/SWLY FLOW CONTINUING...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
   ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90...RH
   VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT WILL DEVELOP. COMPARED TO THE CRITICAL
   AREA...THE OVERALL DURATION AND STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED
   TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS OWING TO A FARTHER EAST DISPLACEMENT FROM THE
   APPROACHING TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...LATE AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS
   SHOULD REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RELATIVELY SHORT
   DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. 
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
   BETWEEN A VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS TO THE W/SW AND MORE ROBUST
   LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE E/SE...A THREAT FOR DRY TSTMS WILL
   EXIST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
   THAN ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AS
   RIDGING EXPANDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING AND FAVORABLE
   OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL/SWRN GA...
   ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS S AND OFF THE COAST THIS
   MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL MERELY ACT AS A WIND SHIFT TO DRIER NLY
   FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
   HOT...REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX INTO
   THE 50S...PRODUCING LOW RH VALUES FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. RATHER
   MODEST SUSTAINED WINDS /AROUND 10 MPH/ WILL BE THE MAIN MITIGATING
   FACTOR TO A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/10/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100943
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN WY/NWRN CO/NERN
   UT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
   CONUS AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD N OVER THE CNTRL STATES WITH 
   TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST. DUE TO THE IMMENSITY OF THE UPPER
   RIDGE...A LOW OVER NRN BAJA CA AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   PACIFIC NW SHOULD TEND TO TRANSLATE IN A MORE NELY DIRECTION TOWARDS
   THE FOUR CORNERS AND NRN ROCKIES RESPECTIVELY. SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL SPREAD A WARM AND DRY AIR
   MASS FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. POCKETS OF
   ENHANCED FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF
   THESE REGIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SWRN WY/NWRN CO/NERN
   UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM DAY 1 AS THE WRN CONUS
   TROUGH ADVANCES CLOSER TO THE AREA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
   VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY
   WIND PROFILES ON MON AFTERNOON. THIS OUGHT TO LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL
   MIXING WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS
   POSSIBLY NEAR 40 MPH. A CONTINUED WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
   MAINTAIN CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE 70S/80S.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER CONFLICTING SUGGESTIONS ON THE EJECTION
   SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER NRN BAJA CA MON MORNING.
   THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE PROFOUND IMPACTS ON THE STRENGTH OF
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS AND TIMING OF INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP
   THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. MODERATE S/SWLY WINDS FROM DAY 1 SHOULD
   GRADUALLY BACK/WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HOWEVER...A
   NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH MAY PERSIST ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SRN NV/SWRN UT AND FAR NWRN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
   APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT THE ANTECEDENT WARM/DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
   SWRN DESERTS/GREAT BASIN WILL ALLOW CRITICALLY LOW RH TO DEVELOP IN
   ADVANCE OF ANY MOISTURE SURGE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE CRITICAL
   AREA INTRODUCED FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/10/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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