Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270850
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN NV/NERN CA/SERN
   ORE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IMMENSE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY
   APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A WEAK
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN WILL IMPINGE ON
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. IN THE
   LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
   THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. AS HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ONTO THE NRN
   PLAINS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS/ROCKIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NWRN NV/NERN CA/SERN
   ORE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE LATER TODAY ALONG AND NE OF
   THE NRN SIERRAS AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
   SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   DAY...BEFORE A SHORT UPSWING IN SPEEDS OCCURS NEAR EARLY EVENING.
   THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING 20 MPH FOR A FEW
   HOURS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS
   PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING/RH RECOVERY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
   REMAIN WARM /GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 90S/. THIS WILL
   SUPPORT LOW MIN RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT.
   
   ...SWRN UT/SRN/NV/NWRN AZ...
   A HOT AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
   SRN GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
   AGAIN REACH THE MID 90S TO LOWER 110S WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 2 TO 5
   PERCENT. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS ERN
   GREAT BASIN IMPULSE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS WILL
   LIMIT SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH.
   
   ...WRN WY/FAR SWRN MT...
   A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE /NOW OVER NRN UT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
   WILL ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT TODAY /ALREADY EVIDENCED BY RECENT CG STRIKES OVER SWRN
   WY/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A VERY NARROW ZONE OF DRY TSTM
   POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS. GIVEN THE RATHER LIMITED NATURE OF THE DRY TSTM THREAT...A
   CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.
   
   ...WRN NM/WRN CO...
   AN EXPANSIVE MCS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DROVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   WELL WWD INTO WRN NM EARLY THIS MORNING. AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING
   ENSUES...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS AN INTERFACE FOR POTENTIAL
   DRY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER ELY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   /COMPARED TO THE NRN ROCKIES/ AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BENEATH A
   MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/27/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270951
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 AM CDT WED JUN 27 2007
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN
   ORE/SRN ID...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
   SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW COAST. BROAD SWATH OF STRONG
   MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/PACIFIC
   NW/NRN ROCKIES. ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THIS ENHANCED FLOW...CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS A HOT/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
   ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN. FARTHER E...RESIDUAL LOW/MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BETWEEN A WEAK SRN PLAINS LOW AND
   RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN
   ORE/SRN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   FROM THE NRN SIERRAS NEWD TOWARDS THE SAWTOOTH MTNS...SWLY FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 45 TO 60 MPH AT 500 MB BY LATE THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NERN PACIFIC TROUGH. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL AID IN MECHANICAL MIXING AND LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS
   REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /WITH STRONGER GUSTS
   OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. AN ANTECEDENT WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD
   TO WIDESPREAD MIN RH OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
   WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 90S.
   
   ...SWRN UT/SRN/NV/NWRN AZ...
   HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO CONTINUE AS MUCH OF THE AREA
   REACHES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR TEMPERATURES WHILE RH VALUES DROP
   UNDER 8 PERCENT. ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED /AROUND
   15 MPH/ AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OFF ANY INFLUENCE FROM THE
   NERN PACIFIC TROUGH THROUGH DAY 2.
   
   ...WRN NM/SWRN CO/FAR SERN AZ...
   SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO DAY 1 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH
   PERHAPS A SLIGHT WWD PROGRESSION OF MORE ROBUST LOW/MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE. DRY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A HOT AND VERY DRY
   AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SW. ONCE AGAIN...THE PRESENCE OF
   THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/27/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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