Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280829
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN NV/SERN ORE/SRN
   ID/EXTREME NERN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY
   PROGRESS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW COAST AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
   SLOWLY PUSHES E FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BROAD
   BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD FARTHER
   INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ACROSS THE
   SOUTHWEST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM OFF BAJA CA
   TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AS A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL LOW HOLDS OVER
   THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NWRN NV/SERN ORE/SRN
   ID/EXTREME NERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 TO 55 MPH AT 500 MB
   BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE NRN SIERRAS NEWD TOWARDS THE SAWTOOTH
   MTNS AS THE NERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY TOWARDS EARLY
   EVENING AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AID IN MIXING DOWN THE
   STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. MIN RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT SHOULD
   DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE
   90S. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DURING THE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL VEER WINDS TO THE W/NW AND IMPROVE RH
   RECOVERY FROM WEST TO EAST.
   
   ...SWRN UT/SRN NV/NWRN AZ...
   IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND VERY DRY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE BACK
   INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 8 PERCENT ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE
   PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST FLOW
   REGIME. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED SURFACE WINDS
   NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF
   PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...WRN NM/SERN AZ/SWRN CO...
   LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY TSTMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS
   OBSERVED ON WED EVENING RAOBS IN GJT AND TUS...DEEPLY-MIXED
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN
   PERIPHERY OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SRN
   ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
   LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/28/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280946
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR GREAT BASIN NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN
   ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL ADVANCE EWD
   TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   AND ATTENDANT SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS
   SHOULD COMBINE WITH AN ANTECEDENT WARM/DRY AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER
   S...PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM NRN BAJA CA
   TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AS CUTOFF LOW STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - GREAT BASIN NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN
   ROCKIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   A RATHER LARGE ZONE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS PROBABLE FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS STRONG SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NW BECOME
   JUXTAPOSED WITH VERY LOW RH TO THE SE. THE ADVANCEMENT OF A
   NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WILL
   STRENGTHEN SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NRN NV/SERN
   ORE/CNTRL ID/SWRN MT...WHILE AREAS FARTHER S SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO
   20 MPH. THE WARMEST/DRIEST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT
   BASIN /SPREADING NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES/ WHERE WIDESPREAD LOW
   RH OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT WILL DEVELOP. FARTHER N...MIN RH VALUES SHOULD
   BE MORE MARGINAL /AROUND 15 PERCENT/...WITH A RATHER SHARP CUT-OFF
   TO SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER HUMIDITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
   ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...WRN NM/SERN AZ/SWRN CO...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS OUGHT TO CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A
   HOT/VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE DESERT SW AND MORE ROBUST
   LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
   SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
   OVERHEAD SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/28/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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