Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290831
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA/GREAT BASIN/NRN
   ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT IMPULSE /NOW AT THE BASE OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   OVER THE NERN PACIFIC/...WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO
   SWRN CANADA BY EARLY SAT. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SPREAD
   E/NEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
   ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER CNTRL MT...WITH A
   RELATIVELY INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
   FARTHER S...PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL HOLD ACROSS FAR NRN
   BAJA CA TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AS CUTOFF LOW STAYS ANCHORED OVER
   THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA/GREAT BASIN/NRN
   ROCKIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
   FIRE DANGER
   
   AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE PACIFIC NW THIS
   AFTERNOON...SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME STRONG /AOA 50 MPH AT
   500 MB/ ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...WITH MORE MODERATE
   FLOW FARTHER S. THIS WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A VERY WARM/DRY AIR
   MASS THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW OVER
   THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...RECENTLY EXPANDING NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN
   ROCKIES. A BROAD REGION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY BY
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   REACHING 25 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
   SHOULD RETARD SURFACE HEATING THROUGH EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. DURING
   THAT TIME FRAME...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   SURFACE HEATING BY MID/LATE-AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 12 TO 20 PERCENT TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.
   
   OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
   QUITE AS STRONG AS FARTHER N. HOWEVER...INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING WILL
   RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AIDING IN MIXING DOWN MODERATE
   FLOW ALOFT. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 20 MPH BY EARLY
   EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S TO AROUND
   105...VERY LOW MIN RH VALUES OF 3 TO 8 PERCENT WILL OCCUR.
   
   ...BLACK HILLS AREA...
   A 45 MPH LOW-LEVEL JET /AS DEPICTED ON RAPID CITY VAD PROFILER/ IS
   INDICATIVE OF STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
   ALTHOUGH THE JET WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT
   IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
   DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY...INTO THE 80S TO MID 90S. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH
   A BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
   
   ....PORTIONS OF FAR WRN NM/SERN AZ/SWRN CO...
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DRY TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE AREA
   REMAINS BETWEEN A HOT/VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE DESERT SW AND MORE
   ROBUST LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH
   PLAINS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN LIMITED
   OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/29/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290945
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007
   
   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN/SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN WY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS SWRN
   CANADA WHILE A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE NERN PACIFIC.
   ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL W/SWLY WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF
   THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FLOW WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS. A LEE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
   OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
   SWWD INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN. IN THE SOUTH...STAGNANT MID-LEVEL
   PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN DESERTS
   AND A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN/SRN
   CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / VERY HIGH TO
   EXTREME FIRE DANGER
   
   A HOT/VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
   REGION AS LATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 110.
   THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD VERY LOW MIN RH AROUND 3 TO 8
   PERCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO LIGHT
   COMPARED TO OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THIS
   OUGHT TO CONTINUE WITH A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME. DESPITE SOME
   SLIGHT WEAKENING IN MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE DAY 1 PERIOD...STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED W/SWLY WINDS
   NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SWRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / SEVERE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT
   
   DOWNWIND OF THE WASATCH AND UNITA MTNS...DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SAT AFTERNOON AS W/SWLY WINDS ENHANCE
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING
   TO BETWEEN 6 AND 12 PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S
   TO LOWER 90S. ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE SERN
   PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN...
   EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WARM AND DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND THROUGH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AS RH
   VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT. MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION...SUGGESTING A CRITICAL
   THREAT COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A
   MID-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MIXING OF THE STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH IN MOST
   LOCATIONS...AND THUS A CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/29/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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