Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120945
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ORE/SRN AND CNTRL ID/SW MT/NE
   NV/UT/NRN AZ/WRN WY/WRN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR SALT
   LAKE CITY. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
   HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST OVER THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ESPECIALLY
   INCREASE ACROSS WRN ORE AND THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTN DUE TO
   THE PACIFIC SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF SCATTERED
   TSTMS. MEANWHILE THE UT SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS FROM
   THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH WRN CO. MANY OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN
   LITTLE OR NO RAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL IGNITIONS WILL
   BE HIGH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ORE/SRN AND CNTRL ID/SW MT/NE
   NV/UT/NRN AZ/WRN WY/WRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY TSTMS/CRITICALLY DRY FUELS/MIN RH
   VALUES BELOW 15-20 PERCENT/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
   
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE
   WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 80S/90S BY AFTN...WITH
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
   HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PURELY DRY TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS NE NV/ID INTO
   MT/WY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED AS FAR SOUTH AS NW AZ...BUT
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STORM IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
   PLATEAU. STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CASCADES
   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY WET...GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES OVER 500-1000
   J/KG AFTER 13/00Z AND PW VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE AN INCH.  
   
   LATEST NFDRS FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH TO EXTREME
   VALUES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND LIGHTNING EFFICIENCY IS VERY
   HIGH. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING...STRONG AND
   UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY NEAR STORMS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/12/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120947
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN WA/ERN ORE/ID/WRN MT/NE NV/NRN
   UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR ON FRIDAY...WITH
   LARGE RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE WEST AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   MIDWEST/NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE MINOR WAVES MAY AFFECT
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE
   OF TSTMS OVER ORE/WA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF UT AND
   CNTRL/ERN AZ. THE GREAT BASIN WILL SEE A DECREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE
   ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/LOW HUMIDITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SCATTERED DRY TSTMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
   ON FRIDAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN WA/ERN ORE/ID/WRN MT/NE NV/NRN
   UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY TSTMS/CRITICALLY DRY FUELS/MIN RH
   VALUES BELOW 15-20 PERCENT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   WEST...AND MANY OF THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   DRY LIGHTNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
   ACROSS ERN WA/ERN ORE...WHERE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
   THROUGH THE 90S OR LOWER 100S. TSTM BASES IN THIS AREA WILL BE AOA
   12000 FEET AGL...WITH VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS. DANGEROUS OUTFLOW
   WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL STORMS...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF
   LIGHTNING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/12/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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