Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140857
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ID...W-CNTRL/SWRN
   WY...EXTREME NRN UT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN WA...NRN ID PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM THE SWRN
   CONUS NWD INTO SWRN CANADA. LARGE-SCALE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   ANCHORED OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. AHEAD
   OF THE FORMER TROUGH...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL EJECT
   NEWD BRUSHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST. FARTHER INLAND...AN IMPULSE OVER
   SERN ORE/SWRN ID WILL WEAKEN AS IT IMPINGES EWD ON THE STRONG RIDGE
   AXIS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN ID...W-CNTRL/SWRN WY...EXTREME
   NRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   TETONS TOWARDS THE NRN WASATCH/UNITA MTNS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE PUSHES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION. THE THREAT FOR DRY
   TSTMS WILL EXIST WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS AROUND
   50 TO 60 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. NEW IGNITIONS
   ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL POSE
   A THREAT TO ONGOING FIREFIGHTING OPERATIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN WA...NRN ID PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR DRY TSTMS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SERN ORE/SWRN ID MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS
   AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL
   EMANATE OUT OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NERN PACIFIC INTO WA
   THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE FORCING TO
   PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS
   15/00Z. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
   THROUGH THE DAY...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE
   TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NRN ID/WRN MT...
   A PROBABLE MIX OF WET/DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS
   AFTERNOON. A SERN ORE/SWRN ID MID-LEVEL IMPULSE HAS AIDED IN EARLY
   MORNING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ID SAWTOOTHS INTO SWRN MT.
   ASSOCIATED EXTENSIVE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD MITIGATE STRONG
   HEATING...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES. EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS CONFLICTING SIGNALS ON JUST
   HOW STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...ALONG
   WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGHER LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   COMPARED TO THE CRITICAL AREAS TO THE N AND S...A CRITICAL THREAT NO
   LONGER APPEARS WARRANTED WITHIN THIS REGION.
   
   ...WRN MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ NWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN UT AND FAR WRN CO...
   
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT DRY TSTMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE CYCLED S/SWWD
   TO THE E OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BEYOND
   DIURNALLY-ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT...THE LACK OF DISCERNABLE
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/14/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140945
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN IMMENSE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SWRN
   CONUS NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA ON SUNDAY. MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE CYCLED AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT N/NEWD ACROSS
   THE NERN PACIFIC/PACIFIC NW COAST.
   
   ...WRN MT/NRN ID...
   ALTHOUGH LATEST SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE WILL
   DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR DRY TSTMS APPEARS TO BE MORE
   ISOLATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY HIGH
   /FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH/...AS LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED
   BENEATH EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO IMPLY
   LOCALIZED DEEP-MIXING WILL OCCUR WITHIN VALLEYS/BASINS.
   HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN WHERE DIURNALLY-ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL LIKELY BE THE
   PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...WRN WY/ERN ID SWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS/WRN MOGOLLON RIM...
   DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THIS REGION
   REMAINS AT THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
   GREAT BASIN AND MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
   GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...EXPECT
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/14/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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