Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150843
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN
CONUS NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIFT N/NEWD ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL AID IN STEERING A WEAK IMPULSE NEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CYCLING
AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE /CURRENTLY OVER WRN NV/ WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OPTIMALLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ID SAWTOOTHS AND MT SWRN MTNS. TO THE E OF THIS...STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S TO NEAR
105. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY MIX INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR RATHER HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. AS TSTMS LIKELY SPREAD E
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN SIERRA MTNS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY INCREASING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE
ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
FARTHER NE OF THE REGION TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
...SWRN WY SWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS/WRN MOGOLLON RIM...
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS
APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE UPWARD FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO MITIGATE
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE.
..GRAMS.. 07/15/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150944
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD
BUT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
NWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC...APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST
BY EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA CA COAST
SHOULD EJECT NEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST BY MON EVENING.
AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH HOLDS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS
IT CIRCULATES NWD.
...GREAT BASIN EWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A MORE WIDESPREAD AFFECTED
AREA OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ON MON AFTERNOON THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BE COMMON GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT HOT/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD
FORCING TRIGGERS...AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ACTUAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. TYPICAL DIURNALLY-ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
..GRAMS.. 07/15/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...