Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150843
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN
   CONUS NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
   LIFT N/NEWD ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC TOWARDS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
   COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL AID IN STEERING A WEAK IMPULSE NEWD ACROSS
   THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CYCLING
   AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
   
   A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE /CURRENTLY OVER WRN NV/ WILL APPROACH THE REGION
   BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OPTIMALLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE ID SAWTOOTHS AND MT SWRN MTNS. TO THE E OF THIS...STRONG
   DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S TO NEAR
   105. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY MIX INTO THE MID 40S TO
   LOWER 50S...LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR RATHER HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. AS TSTMS LIKELY SPREAD E
   FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS
   ALONG WITH POTENTIAL NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN SIERRA MTNS NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
   BASIN...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY INCREASING
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE
   ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
   FARTHER NE OF THE REGION TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SWRN WY SWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS/WRN MOGOLLON RIM...
   ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS
   APPEARS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
   REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. LACK OF
   SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE UPWARD FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO MITIGATE
   OVERALL STORM COVERAGE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/15/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150944
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD
   BUT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
   NWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
   SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC...APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST
   BY EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA CA COAST
   SHOULD EJECT NEWD...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN CA COAST BY MON EVENING.
   AS THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH HOLDS OVER THE FOUR
   CORNERS...MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AS
   IT CIRCULATES NWD.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN EWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...
   INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A MORE WIDESPREAD AFFECTED
   AREA OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ON MON AFTERNOON THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WILL BE COMMON GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT HOT/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
   MASS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD
   FORCING TRIGGERS...AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ACTUAL CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE. TYPICAL DIURNALLY-ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/15/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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