Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160754
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PERSISTENTLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD ACROSS
   THE FOUR CORNERS/NRN ROCKIES...AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
   APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW FROM THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS LATTER SYSTEM
   WILL HELP KICK NEWD A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA
   COAST...LIKELY REACHING THE SRN SIERRAS BY EARLY TUE. IN THE
   MID-LEVELS...A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL ORBIT AROUND A HIGH
   CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH ROBUST
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CNTRL ROCKIES.
   
   ...SRN SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...
   THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSES...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A SPORADIC MIX OF WET
   AND DRY TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GPS PRECIPITABLE
   WATER ESTIMATES AND SUNDAY EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   AROUND A HALF-INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE
   REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR DRY TSTMS...POCKETS
   OF MORE INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING
   INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 105 IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...RESULTING IN
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD AID IN OCCASIONALLY STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY
   AFFECT ONGOING LARGE FIRES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/16/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160941
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN NV...FAR ERN CA...FAR
   SWRN UT..FAR NWRN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CA...NWRN
   NV...SERN ORE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN ID...FAR NERN NV...FAR NWRN
   UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS NWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD
   SLOWLY EDGE EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
   THE PERIOD. A LEAD UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH /EXPECTED TO BE
   INVOF SIERRAS TUE MORNING/ SHOULD MIGRATE SLOWLY N/NEWD IMPINGING
   UPON THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL
   UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TUE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL/SRN NV...FAR ERN CA...FAR SWRN
   UT..FAR NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MODEL GUIDANCE
   FORECASTS SHOW A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING
   AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS ON TUE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE /AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH AT 500
   MB/...DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 MPH
   TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S
   TO AROUND 110...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
   PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NERN CA...NWRN NV...SERN
   ORE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
   FIRE DANGER
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS WILL INCREASE DOWNWIND OF THE NRN SIERRAS WITH
   THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. A
   CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH APPEARS LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME MIXING POTENTIAL WILL
   BE MAXIMIZED. RH SHOULD DIP NEAR CRITICALLY LOW VALUES /AROUND 15
   PERCENT/...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN ID...FAR NERN NV...FAR NWRN
   UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
   TUE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE EXACT
   TIMING OF THE WAVE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO WHETHER OR NOT DRY TSTMS CAN
   OCCUR. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN
   NORMAL...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MODERATELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. IN
   ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD LOWER MEAN MIXING
   RATIOS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF
   DRY TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER STORMS TO THE N/NE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/16/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home