Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160754
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENTLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS/NRN ROCKIES...AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW FROM THE NERN PACIFIC. THIS LATTER SYSTEM
WILL HELP KICK NEWD A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN CA
COAST...LIKELY REACHING THE SRN SIERRAS BY EARLY TUE. IN THE
MID-LEVELS...A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL ORBIT AROUND A HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH ROBUST
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CNTRL ROCKIES.
...SRN SIERRAS/GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A SPORADIC MIX OF WET
AND DRY TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GPS PRECIPITABLE
WATER ESTIMATES AND SUNDAY EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AROUND A HALF-INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR DRY TSTMS...POCKETS
OF MORE INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING
INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 105 IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...RESULTING IN
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD AID IN OCCASIONALLY STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY
AFFECT ONGOING LARGE FIRES.
..GRAMS.. 07/16/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160941
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN NV...FAR ERN CA...FAR
SWRN UT..FAR NWRN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CA...NWRN
NV...SERN ORE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN ID...FAR NERN NV...FAR NWRN
UT...
...SYNOPSIS...
STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS NWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD
SLOWLY EDGE EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A LEAD UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH /EXPECTED TO BE
INVOF SIERRAS TUE MORNING/ SHOULD MIGRATE SLOWLY N/NEWD IMPINGING
UPON THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES TUE AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL/SRN NV...FAR ERN CA...FAR SWRN
UT..FAR NWRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS SHOW A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING
AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS ON TUE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE /AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH AT 500
MB/...DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 MPH
TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S
TO AROUND 110...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NERN CA...NWRN NV...SERN
ORE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER
LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS WILL INCREASE DOWNWIND OF THE NRN SIERRAS WITH
THE GRADUAL APPROACH OF A LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. A
CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME MIXING POTENTIAL WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. RH SHOULD DIP NEAR CRITICALLY LOW VALUES /AROUND 15
PERCENT/...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE WEST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN ID...FAR NERN NV...FAR NWRN
UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY TSTMS / MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
TUE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE WAVE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO WHETHER OR NOT DRY TSTMS CAN
OCCUR. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MODERATELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD LOWER MEAN MIXING
RATIOS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF
DRY TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER STORMS TO THE N/NE.
..GRAMS.. 07/16/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...