Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170846
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GREAT BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN
ORE...
...SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER THE SIERRAS/ MIGRATES N/NEWD IMPINGING ON THE RIDGE AXIS BY
EARLY WED. EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EWD BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN GREAT BASIN...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT
SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS N/NE OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO NEARLY FULL INSOLATION...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 90S TO AROUND 110. RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND
20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN
ORE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A LARGE CYCLONE APPROACHES
FROM THE NERN PACIFIC. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN
MIXING...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH JUST HOW DRY IT WILL BECOME
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SWLYS. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE THAT RH VALUES
WILL APPROACH CRITICALLY LOW VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT...PRIOR TO
SUBSTANTIAL RECOVERY OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING.
...NERN NV/SRN ID/NWRN UT...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS COMPLICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY TSTM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE WET /.45 INCHES MEASURED AT ELY AS 0F
08Z/...WITH LATEST GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES AROUND 0.75 TO 1
INCH. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SIERRAS MOVES N/NEWD. WITH SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING...DEEP MIXING/HIGH-BASED CONVECTION COULD OCCUR WITH
INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS MAY LIMIT FULL
MIXING POTENTIAL IN MANY AREAS. A DRY TSTM CRITICAL AREA NO LONGER
APPEARS WARRANTED.
..GRAMS.. 07/17/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170946
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE W COAST SHOULD BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED BY EARLY THU AS A POTENT IMPULSE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE LIKELY LEADING TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN. DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME QUITE
STOUT ONCE AGAIN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NWD INTO
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. ROBUST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED /MAINLY WET/ AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT
A RATHER LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS APT TO DEVELOP IN
THE GREAT BASIN ON WED AFTERNOON. 500 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
SHOULD OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF NV IN ADVANCE OF EVOLVING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE W COAST. FARTHER EAST...DEEPER MIXING WILL
COMPENSATE FOR SOMEWHAT WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. IN ANY CASE...MODEL
GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 07/17/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...