Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170846
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GREAT BASIN...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN
   ORE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE NRN
   ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY
   OVER THE SIERRAS/ MIGRATES N/NEWD IMPINGING ON THE RIDGE AXIS BY
   EARLY WED. EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL
   SLOWLY SLIDE EWD BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH LIFTS N/NE OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
   OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO NEARLY FULL INSOLATION...WITH
   TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 90S TO AROUND 110. RH VALUES WILL
   DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX
   WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND
   20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN
   ORE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
   FIRE DANGER
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A LARGE CYCLONE APPROACHES
   FROM THE NERN PACIFIC. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN
   MIXING...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH JUST HOW DRY IT WILL BECOME
   GIVEN LOW-LEVEL SWLYS. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE THAT RH VALUES
   WILL APPROACH CRITICALLY LOW VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT...PRIOR TO
   SUBSTANTIAL RECOVERY OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING.
   
   ...NERN NV/SRN ID/NWRN UT...
   ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS COMPLICATED THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DRY TSTM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE
   STORMS APPEAR TO BE WET /.45 INCHES MEASURED AT ELY AS 0F
   08Z/...WITH LATEST GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES AROUND 0.75 TO 1
   INCH. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY AS
   THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SIERRAS MOVES N/NEWD. WITH SUFFICIENT
   DAYTIME HEATING...DEEP MIXING/HIGH-BASED CONVECTION COULD OCCUR WITH
   INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD
   COVERAGE AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS MAY LIMIT FULL
   MIXING POTENTIAL IN MANY AREAS. A DRY TSTM CRITICAL AREA NO LONGER
   APPEARS WARRANTED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/17/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170946
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE W COAST SHOULD BECOME
   NEGATIVELY-TILTED BY EARLY THU AS A POTENT IMPULSE EJECTS NEWD FROM
   THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN IN
   RESPONSE LIKELY LEADING TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT BASIN. DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME QUITE
   STOUT ONCE AGAIN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NWD INTO
   ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. ROBUST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE
   RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED /MAINLY WET/ AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE ROCKIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   A RATHER LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS APT TO DEVELOP IN
   THE GREAT BASIN ON WED AFTERNOON. 500 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH 
   SHOULD OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF NV IN ADVANCE OF EVOLVING
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE W COAST. FARTHER EAST...DEEPER MIXING WILL
   COMPENSATE FOR SOMEWHAT WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. IN ANY CASE...MODEL
   GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
   RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/17/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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