Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300916
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN MT/CNTRL ID...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN
   ROCKIES WILL BE SHUNTED EWD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
   NW COAST TRANSLATES E/NE INTO SWRN CANADA. THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
   THIS LATTER FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SWRN MT/CNTRL ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY TSTMS
   
   FAVORABLE TIMING OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS SWRN CANADA COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
   OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE ID SAWTOOTHS/SWRN MT MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDER AS SUNDAY
   EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE WERE QUITE VARIED WITH THE REPRESENTATION OF
   THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NAM/NAMKF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MORE WET TSTMS...BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE MUCH TOO HIGH INITIALLY WITH
   THE AMOUNT OF SFC-3 KM MOISTURE WHEN COMPARED TO 30/00Z REGIONAL
   RAOBS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE PLAUSIBLE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
   ANTECEDENT HOT/DRY AIR MASS. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL NEW
   IGNITIONS...STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ADVERSELY IMPACT
   ONGOING FIRE CONTROL EFFORTS.
   
   ...NERN NV/SRN ID/NWRN UT...
   SW OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD TEND TO
   LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. WITH
   THE REGION ON THE FRINGE OF RICHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...MODERATELY
   DEEP-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DRY TSTMS IN
   LOWER ELEVATIONS.
   
   ...FAR ERN MT/FAR WRN ND...
   HOT/RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
   INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY MIX
   INTO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BECOME
   MARGINALLY LOW /AROUND 20 PERCENT/. SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER COMPARED TO SUNDAY...LIKELY APPROACHING 15 MPH
   AT TIMES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/30/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300939
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2007
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK EWD FROM
   SWRN CANADA ONTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES. ASSOCIATED BELT OF STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY DIP INTO FAR NRN MT...BUT PRIMARILY REMAIN N OF
   THE CONUS BORDER. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
   OVER MANITOBA...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD ACROSS THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
   
   ...NRN MT...
   LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
   HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THIS
   FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS PRECLUDES A CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM.
   THE NAM/NAMKF/SREF APPEAR TO BE SLOWER/WEAKER WITH WINDS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...BEFORE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH A FRONTAL SURGE DURING
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER/STRONGER...WITH
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...RH VALUES SHOULD
   STILL BECOME LOW /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/ DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY IN THE EVENING.
   
   ...NERN NV/NWRN UT/FAR SWRN ID...
   A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME TO DAY 1 IS FORECAST WITH THE REGION
   REMAINING ON THE PERIPHERY OF MORE ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE
   SWRN CONUS. ONCE AGAIN...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   WILL TEND TO MITIGATE DRY TSTM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED/WIDELY
   SCATTERED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/30/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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