Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020900
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FAR
   NRN CONUS INTO SRN CANADA. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
   MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EWD WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
   SHIFTING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TOWARDS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AN
   IMPULSE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL IMPINGE UPON THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT
   TRACKS TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST BY EARLY FRI.
   
   ...S-CNTRL AND SERN ORE/FAR NWRN NV/FAR NERN CA...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND SLOWLY NWD FROM WED AFTERNOON ALONG
   THE LEE OF THE CASCADES...AS A HOT/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN
   PLACE. MONSOONAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD AS THE
   WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A
   SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER ERN NV WHICH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
   MOVE NEWD INTO SRN ID/NRN UT BY THIS EVENING. GREATEST LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN GREAT BASIN...LIKELY MITIGATING A
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE THREAT FARTHER WEST. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
   OVER THE NERN PACIFIC MAY ENHANCE ASCENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
   OVERALL TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/02/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020946
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DIG SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC
   NW/NRN CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE TOPS
   THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ONTO THE NRN PLAINS. BOTH
   FEATURES MAY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN
   ROCKIES...BUT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL
   AREAS ATTM.
   
   ...ERN WA...
   MID-LEVEL W/SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE-SCALE
   TROUGH AMPLIFYING SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES STEEPEN THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING E OF THE
   CASCADES...MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   APPROACHING 20 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
   MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...RH VALUES SHOULD REACH 15 TO
   20 PERCENT.
   
   ...WRN MT...
   SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH DRY TSTM POTENTIAL ON FRI
   AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE SPEED AT WHICH A MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE /CURRENTLY OVER ERN NV/ EJECTS EWD. THIS SHOULD PLAY A
   CRUCIAL ROLE IN STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND OVERALL
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. NEVERTHELESS...MONSOONAL
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
   
   ...FAR NERN CA/FAR NWRN NV...
   MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE STRENGTH OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   DOWNWIND OF THE NRN SIERRAS...WITH THE NAM STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND
   ECMWF. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...DAYTIME MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF
   THE WIND SPEEDS...MIN RH WILL REMAIN LOW /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/02/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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