Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020900
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FAR
NRN CONUS INTO SRN CANADA. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EWD WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS TOWARDS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AN
IMPULSE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL IMPINGE UPON THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST BY EARLY FRI.
...S-CNTRL AND SERN ORE/FAR NWRN NV/FAR NERN CA...
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND SLOWLY NWD FROM WED AFTERNOON ALONG
THE LEE OF THE CASCADES...AS A HOT/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. MONSOONAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD AS THE
WRN CONUS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER ERN NV WHICH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
MOVE NEWD INTO SRN ID/NRN UT BY THIS EVENING. GREATEST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN GREAT BASIN...LIKELY MITIGATING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE THREAT FARTHER WEST. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
OVER THE NERN PACIFIC MAY ENHANCE ASCENT LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT
OVERALL TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..GRAMS.. 08/02/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 020946
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DIG SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC
NW/NRN CA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE TOPS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES ONTO THE NRN PLAINS. BOTH
FEATURES MAY ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN
ROCKIES...BUT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL
AREAS ATTM.
...ERN WA...
MID-LEVEL W/SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING E OF THE
CASCADES...MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 20 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...RH VALUES SHOULD REACH 15 TO
20 PERCENT.
...WRN MT...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH DRY TSTM POTENTIAL ON FRI
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE SPEED AT WHICH A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE /CURRENTLY OVER ERN NV/ EJECTS EWD. THIS SHOULD PLAY A
CRUCIAL ROLE IN STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. NEVERTHELESS...MONSOONAL
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WITH INVERTED-V TYPE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
...FAR NERN CA/FAR NWRN NV...
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE STRENGTH OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
DOWNWIND OF THE NRN SIERRAS...WITH THE NAM STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...DAYTIME MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF
THE WIND SPEEDS...MIN RH WILL REMAIN LOW /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/.
..GRAMS.. 08/02/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...