Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 130931
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTIONS OF THE WRN/NRN GREAT
BASIN...SIERRA NEVADA AND NRN ROCKIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION AS A RESULT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH EXIST OVER
THE WRN GREAT BASIN/SIERRA NEVADA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SUPPORT SCT
TSTMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...THE COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPTS...GUSTY WINDS AND RECENT/LONG TERM
DROUGHT/S WILL SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE SERN STATES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - A PORTION OF THE WRN/NRN GREAT
BASIN...SIERRA NEVADA AND NRN ROCKIES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 25 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 7-12 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PAC NW COAST...AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ORE
INTO NWRN MT...MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA NEWD INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT BASIN AND A
PORTION OF NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE FROM 2-7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...LOW DEWPTS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH
READINGS FROM 7-12 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT POOR RH RECOVERY CAN BE
EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
...ERN/NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCT TSTMS OVER MOST OF
THE ROCKIES STATES. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS MAY BE DRY OVER THE WRN
FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ACROSS THE SRN/ERN GREAT BASIN...WHERE
AVERAGE SUB-CLOUD RH READINGS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND PW
VALUES LESS THAN 0.75 INCH ARE PRESENT. COVERAGE OF THESE DRY TSTMS
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED /GIVEN THE LACK OF A MID LEVEL FORCING
MECHANISM/ PRECLUDING A SEPARATE CRITICAL AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS...STRONG HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES. THESE WINDS WILL
SUPPORT STRONG VENTILATION OF ACTIVE LARGE FIRE PLUMES IN THIS
REGION.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST PRESSURE
RISES...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL SUPPORT NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH OVER ND AND FAR ERN MT. WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND LOW DEWPTS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT LEADING TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES FROM 100-105 F WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REGION UNDER THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH AND MODERATE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY LOW RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT
AND A RECENT DRY SPELL...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE PRESENT.
...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
AN AXIS OF MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPTS /50S TO LOWER 60S/
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA
AGAIN TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM 100-105 F WILL THEREFORE
SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED NELY
WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE NELY WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH.
..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131418
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
CORRECTED FOR SYNOPSIS FIRST SENTENCE
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BECOME MORE
ELONGATED AND WEAKEN SOME AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM
THE SRN CANADA PRAIRIES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THAN SEEN IN
RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER AS A RESULT OF THIS WEAKENING AND ELONGATION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE A CHANGE IN MID LEVEL WIND DIRECTION WILL SUPPORT
MORE WEST/NORTH PENETRATION OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH
DESERT REGION OF CA AND THE SRN/WRN GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCT /MAINLY DRY/ TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...MS VALLEY
AND SERN STATES WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEG F WILL BE
COMMONPLACE. MODERATE SLY WINDS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
COMBINED WITH THESE READINGS WILL SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
...SERN CA...SRN/CENTRAL NV...
ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWWD IN RESPONSE AN
UPPER LOW MOVING OFF OF BAJA CA AND A RE-ORIENTATION/SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LACK OF A
CLEARLY DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DRY TSTM AREA ATTM.
...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN SIERRA NEVADA...
WITH A WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINING
WELL OFF THE PAC NW COAST...SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO
BELOW 20 MPH PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS
AFTERNOON READINGS RANGE FROM 100-108 F. RELATIVELY LOW DEWPTS FROM
45-50 F WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT. MODERATE SLY
WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL AGAIN OCCUR SOUTH OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WRN NEB.
..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...