Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130931
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0431 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTIONS OF THE WRN/NRN GREAT
   BASIN...SIERRA NEVADA AND NRN ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL REMAIN
   NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION AS A RESULT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
   OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY OVER PORTIONS
   OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH EXIST OVER
   THE WRN GREAT BASIN/SIERRA NEVADA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
   TO MOVE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND SUPPORT SCT
   TSTMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...THE COMBINATION OF WELL ABOVE
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW DEWPTS...GUSTY WINDS AND RECENT/LONG TERM
   DROUGHT/S WILL SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
   PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE SERN STATES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - A PORTION OF THE WRN/NRN GREAT
   BASIN...SIERRA NEVADA AND NRN ROCKIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 25 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 7-12 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFF
   THE PAC NW COAST...AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ORE
   INTO NWRN MT...MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS
   ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA NEWD INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT BASIN AND A
   PORTION OF NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE FROM 2-7
   DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...LOW DEWPTS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH
   READINGS FROM 7-12 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT POOR RH RECOVERY CAN BE
   EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
   
   ...ERN/NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...
   
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD CENTRAL
   CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCT TSTMS OVER MOST OF
   THE ROCKIES STATES. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS MAY BE DRY OVER THE WRN
   FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ACROSS THE SRN/ERN GREAT BASIN...WHERE
   AVERAGE SUB-CLOUD RH READINGS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND PW
   VALUES LESS THAN 0.75 INCH ARE PRESENT.  COVERAGE OF THESE DRY TSTMS
   SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED /GIVEN THE LACK OF A MID LEVEL FORCING
   MECHANISM/ PRECLUDING A SEPARATE CRITICAL AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS...STRONG HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL
   AGAIN BE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES. THESE WINDS WILL
   SUPPORT STRONG VENTILATION OF ACTIVE LARGE FIRE PLUMES IN THIS
   REGION.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF MODEST PRESSURE
   RISES...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
   WILL SUPPORT NWLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH OVER ND AND FAR ERN MT. WARM
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND LOW DEWPTS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S WILL
   COMBINE TO PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT LEADING TO
   NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES FROM 100-105 F WILL OCCUR OVER THE
   REGION UNDER THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE. WITH THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH AND MODERATE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
   GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY LOW RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT
   AND A RECENT DRY SPELL...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
   BE PRESENT.
   
   ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
   AN AXIS OF MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPTS /50S TO LOWER 60S/
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA
   AGAIN TODAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM 100-105 F WILL THEREFORE
   SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED NELY
   WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MODERATE NELY WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
   MPH.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 131418
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0918 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR SYNOPSIS FIRST SENTENCE
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BECOME MORE
   ELONGATED AND WEAKEN SOME AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES SEWD FROM
   THE SRN CANADA PRAIRIES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THAN SEEN IN
   RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER AS A RESULT OF THIS WEAKENING AND ELONGATION OF
   THE UPPER RIDGE A CHANGE IN MID LEVEL WIND DIRECTION WILL SUPPORT
   MORE WEST/NORTH PENETRATION OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH
   DESERT REGION OF CA AND THE SRN/WRN GREAT BASIN...SUPPORTING
   ISOLATED TO SCT /MAINLY DRY/ TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...MS VALLEY
   AND SERN STATES WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEG F WILL BE
   COMMONPLACE. MODERATE SLY WINDS OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   COMBINED WITH THESE READINGS WILL SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SERN CA...SRN/CENTRAL NV...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A
   RESULT OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NWWD IN RESPONSE AN
   UPPER LOW MOVING OFF OF BAJA CA AND A RE-ORIENTATION/SLIGHT
   WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LACK OF A
   CLEARLY DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL DRY TSTM AREA ATTM.
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN SIERRA NEVADA...
   WITH A WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN RESPONSE TO A
   WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINING
   WELL OFF THE PAC NW COAST...SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO
   BELOW 20 MPH PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS
   AFTERNOON READINGS RANGE FROM 100-108 F. RELATIVELY LOW DEWPTS FROM
   45-50 F WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT. MODERATE SLY
   WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL AGAIN OCCUR SOUTH OF AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE OVER WRN NEB.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 08/13/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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