Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160850
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF OR...NE CA...NORTHERN
   NV...FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...HOT SFC TEMPS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF ID...WESTERN MT...WESTERN
   WY...NORTHERN UT...EXTRM NE NV...FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR VARYING FIRE WEATHER SCENARIOS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOTH DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND OREGON.
   ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
   RIVER VALLEY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND HOT WEATHER
   WILL CONTINUE IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
   TEXAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MOST OF OR...NE CA...NORTHERN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...HOT SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES...LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION DURING
   THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
   EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE
   HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE TEENS
   WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID 90S F TO AROUND
   100F. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A FAIRLY LONG-TERM DROUGHT AND
   SURFACE FUELS ARE VERY DRY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME AREAS WILL SEE
   STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
   NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MOST OF ID...WESTERN MT...WESTERN
   WY...NORTHERN UT...EXTRM NE NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A PLUME
   OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
   FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS RELATIVELY
   UNMODIFIED FROM WEDNESDAY...THAT PRODUCED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
   SEVERAL FIRE STARTS IN EASTERN OREGON. THE NAM PREDICTS A COUPLE OF
   IMPLUSES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY INTO
   IDAHO AND MONTANA...AND THE ASSOCIATED VERTICAL MOTION COMBINED WITH
   THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE WILL HELP PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT
   FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER OF THIS AIRMASS REMAINS HOT AND DRY...SO MOST RAIN FROM STORMS
   WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AND LOCALLY INTENSE
   DOWNDRAFTS FROM STORMS ARE LIKELY. WINDS PRODUCED FROM THE STORMS
   WILL BE ERRATIC IN NATURE AND INTERACTION WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN COULD
   CAUSE RAPID CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION.
   
   ...SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT PLAINS...
   BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE...ONCE AGAIN...HOT AND DRY
   CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RECORD
   TEMPERATURES AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE LACK OF
   AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS WILL LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER
   RISK...BUT THE HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TO DRY SURFACE FUELS IN THE
   REGION.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 08/16/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161000
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0500 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NV...ID...WESTERN UT...EASTERN
   OR...NORTHEASTERN CA...FOR DROUGHT...HOT AND DRY WEATHER...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR UT...WY...SOUTHWESTERN
   ID...EASTERN NV...FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN
   THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
   ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES...HOT AND DRY
   CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   MITIGATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
   ERIN...WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
   FURTHER EAST...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
   CONTINUE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NV...ID...WESTERN UT...EASTERN
   OR...NORTHEASTERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: HOT AND DRY SURFACE WEATHER...LONG-TERM
   DROUGHT...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
   
   THE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
   PERIOD...ONLY THAT THE AIRMASS CONTAINING THESE FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS HAS TRANSLATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH DIGS
   INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME AREAS EXPERIENCING WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
   MPH. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AGAIN WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
   TO THE MID TEENS...AND GIVEN THE DRY FUELS IN THE REGION AND HOT
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - UT...WY...SOUTHWESTERN ID...EASTERN
   NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS
   FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION REMAINS
   RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND STRONG VERTICAL
   MOTION...ESPECIALLY OVER WYOMING AND IDAHO...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
   CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
   STRONG WIND SPEEDS...AND A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
   THE PLAINS...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL BE
   MITIGATED BY THE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE REMNANTS OF
   TROPICAL STORM ERIN.  THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE
   TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRYING OF FUELS.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 08/16/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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