Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170854
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NV...EASTERN CA...SOUTHWESTERN
   ID...SOUTHEASTERN OR...FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY
   WINDS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN ID...NORTHERN
   UT...WESTERN NV...FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE
   ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FORECAST
   PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND VERTICAL ASCENT WILL HELP CREATE CONDITIONS FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN UTAH AND IDAHO. FURTHER
   WEST...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND WITH STRONG WINDS AND HIGH
   TEMPERATURES...A FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST. ELSEWHERE IN THE
   COUNTRY...THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL IMPACT IN THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...AND SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE IN A LEE TROUGH IN AND AROUND THE DAKOTAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NV...EASTERN CA...SOUTHWESTERN
   ID...SOUTHEASTERN OR...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...HIGH
   TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...DROUGHT
   
   THIS AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
   THE 90S F. AREAS OF THE REGION WILL SEE STRONG WESTERLY WIND
   SPEEDS...FROM 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
   DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS AIRMASS HAS EXISTED FOR
   SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE AREA...AND SURFACE FUELS IN THIS LONG-TERM
   DROUGHT CONDITION REMAIN VERY DRY...CREATING A DANGEROUS FIRE
   WEATHER ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SOUTHERN ID...NORTHERN UT...WESTERN
   NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERTICAL ASCENT FROM IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
   EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS REGION REMAINS IN A LONG-TERM DROUGHT SO
   SURFACE FUELS ARE LIKELY VERY DRY...AND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS
   COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNDRAFTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
   COULD CAUSE RAPID WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES GIVEN TERRAIN
   INTERACTIONS...EFFECTING THE BEHAVIOR OF ONGOING FIRES.
   
   ...SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
   ONCE AGAIN...AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 100 OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE FUELS
   CONTINUE TO DRY IN THE HIGH HEAT...BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
   WIND SPEEDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
   FIRE WEATHER RISK BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 08/17/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171059
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL AREA GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION....CHANGE WESTERN
   ID TO EASTERN ID
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NV...EXTREME WESTERN CA...SOUTHERN
   UT...SOUTHEASTERN OR...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDIFY
   VALUES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ID...NORTHERN
   UT...SOUTHWESTERN MT...FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
   MOVE EASTWARD...CONTINUING THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN OBSERVED AS IN
   PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE ALSO AND IN THE
   GREAT BASIN. STORMS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
   MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
   ERIN BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE
   SOUTHEAST...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NV...EXTREME WESTERN CA...SOUTHERN
   UT...SOUTHEASTERN OR...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LONG-TERM DROUGHT...STRONG SURFACE WINDS...LOW
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
   
   SURFACE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
   WILL CONTINUE TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S F...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
   THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...AND SURFACE WIND
   SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH AREAS OF HIGHER GUSTS IN COMPLEX
   TERRAIN WILL EXIST IN THE THREAT REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EASTERN ID...NORTHERN
   UT...SOUTHWESTERN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   THE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
   PAST SEVERAL PREVIOUS FORECAST PERIODS. ONCE AGAIN...MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE MONSOONAL
   PLUME OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...AND AMPLE ASCENT FROM VARIOUS
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
   WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
   SUSTAINED LONG-TERM DROUGHT...SURFACE FUELS WILL BE VERY DRY AND
   THUNDERSTORMS COULD IGNITE NEW FIRES. ERRATIC SURFACE WIND SPEED AND
   DIRECTION SHIFTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THESE
   STORMS.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS...CAUSING SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...WITH VALUES
   AROUND 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
   IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
   F WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
   THE SAME AIR MASS WILL EXIST HERE AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
   TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 F. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVE
   HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 08/17/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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