Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 180907
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN/E-CNTRL CA...WRN/CNTRL
NV...SERN ORE...WRN/CNTRL ID...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OFF THE W
COAST/. ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE SHOULD EJECT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES PROMOTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
LATTER REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE TO
STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NWRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL COINCIDE
WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN THE WRN/NRN GREAT BASIN LEADING TO PROBABLE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN/E-CNTRL CA...WRN/CNTRL
NV...SERN ORE...WRN/CNTRL ID...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT
SWLY 500 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WILL OVERSPREAD THE CRITICAL AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL NOT ONLY AID
IN STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO IN ADVECTING A
PARTICULARLY DRY AIR MASS /REF 00Z REV RAOB/ NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN
ROCKIES. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS INVOF
THE SIERRAS AND SERN ORE/CNTRL ID MTNS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 12 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH
EVEN LOWER VALUES /FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT/ IN NWRN NV AND FAR SERN
ORE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL MODERATE AFTER DARK...POOR RH RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS N-CNTRL NV TO CNTRL ID.
...PORTIONS OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
FRIDAY EVENING RAOBS AND RECENT GPS DATA SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS SWLY
FLOW INCREASES...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S/50S.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A FAVORABLY
TIMED SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ADEQUATELY MOIST SUCH THAT A CRITICAL DRY TSTM
AREA NO LONGER APPEARS WARRANTED.
..GRAMS.. 08/18/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 181005
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR GREAT BASIN...NRN ROCKIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL PUSH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF
THE W COAST INLAND...BECOMINGLY INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED BY
EARLY MON. MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD
FARTHER INLAND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEE OF THE SWRN
CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO ITS SE LIKELY
REACHING THE NWRN GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - GREAT BASIN...NRN ROCKIES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY SUN
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO INTENSE SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NWRN CONUS...RH VALUES
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BETWEEN RICHER
LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. ROBUST DAYTIME
HEATING AND/OR DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD
RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...PERHAPS LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS PRIOR TO RAPID RH RECOVERY BEHIND A
SHARP COLD FRONT. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
...WY...
THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE CRITICAL
AREA...WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. THE DEGREE OF DRYING IS
MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MIN RH VALUES LIKELY REMAINING MARGINAL
/GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/. POTENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE DAY 1
PERIOD MAY ALSO TEMPER THE OVERALL THREAT AS WELL.
..GRAMS.. 08/18/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...