Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180907
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0407 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN/E-CNTRL CA...WRN/CNTRL
   NV...SERN ORE...WRN/CNTRL ID...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OFF THE W
   COAST/. ONE SUCH SHORT WAVE SHOULD EJECT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
   TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES PROMOTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
   LATTER REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODERATE TO
   STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   NWRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL COINCIDE
   WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN THE WRN/NRN GREAT BASIN LEADING TO PROBABLE
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN/E-CNTRL CA...WRN/CNTRL
   NV...SERN ORE...WRN/CNTRL ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT
   
   SWLY 500 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WILL OVERSPREAD THE CRITICAL AREA
   BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
   INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL NOT ONLY AID
   IN STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO IN ADVECTING A
   PARTICULARLY DRY AIR MASS /REF 00Z REV RAOB/ NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN
   ROCKIES. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS INVOF
   THE SIERRAS AND SERN ORE/CNTRL ID MTNS. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
   BETWEEN 12 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH
   EVEN LOWER VALUES /FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT/ IN NWRN NV AND FAR SERN
   ORE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL MODERATE AFTER DARK...POOR RH RECOVERY IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS N-CNTRL NV TO CNTRL ID.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
   FRIDAY EVENING RAOBS AND RECENT GPS DATA SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
   ALTHOUGH SOME LOW/MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS SWLY
   FLOW INCREASES...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S/50S.
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A FAVORABLY
   TIMED SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE
   CONVECTION SHOULD BE ADEQUATELY MOIST SUCH THAT A CRITICAL DRY TSTM
   AREA NO LONGER APPEARS WARRANTED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/18/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 181005
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR GREAT BASIN...NRN ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL PUSH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF
   THE W COAST INLAND...BECOMINGLY INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED BY
   EARLY MON. MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD
   FARTHER INLAND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES.
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEE OF THE SWRN
   CANADIAN ROCKIES...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO ITS SE LIKELY
   REACHING THE NWRN GREAT BASIN SUN AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - GREAT BASIN...NRN ROCKIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY SUN
   AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO INTENSE SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
   WILL BE COMMON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NWRN CONUS...RH VALUES
   WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BETWEEN RICHER
   LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND AHEAD OF A
   STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. ROBUST DAYTIME
   HEATING AND/OR DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD
   RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
   COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. LOCALLY STRONGER
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT OWING TO CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...PERHAPS LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
   OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS PRIOR TO RAPID RH RECOVERY BEHIND A
   SHARP COLD FRONT. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   UPGRADE IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ...WY...
   THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE CRITICAL
   AREA...WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. THE DEGREE OF DRYING IS
   MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MIN RH VALUES LIKELY REMAINING MARGINAL
   /GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/. POTENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE DAY 1
   PERIOD MAY ALSO TEMPER THE OVERALL THREAT AS WELL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/18/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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