Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190911
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR GREAT BASIN...NRN ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST WILL ACCELERATE
   E/NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN TODAY...BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT REACHES THE NRN ROCKIES
   TONIGHT. A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL
   SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
   SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY OVER CNTRL MT/SWRN
   SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE AN ATTENDANT SHARP COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
   THE LOW TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - GREAT BASIN...NRN ROCKIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   A HIGHER-END CRITICAL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION
   OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE QUITE
   COMMON. MORE INTENSE SUSTAINED WINDS /APPROACHING 40 MPH/...ARE
   EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN ID/SWRN MT BENEATH THE CORE OF A
   MID-LEVEL JET AND AS A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
   BRIEF DURATION OF EXTREME CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE LENGTH OF LOW RH
   DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL. ELSEWHERE...RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10 TO 20
   PERCENT...WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RH ACROSS THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NW TO SE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL RESULT IN RAPID RH RECOVERY BEHIND THE
   BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW.
   
   ...WRN/CNTRL WY AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT...
   ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON...MIN RH
   VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA.
   SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS
   MORNING. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG
   DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
   PASSAGE WILL ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE RH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS
   THE DURATION OF RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 20 PERCENT WOULD BE
   SHORT-LIVED GIVEN THIS SCENARIO.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/19/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191009
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN WY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
   EARLY MON AND WILL LIFT NWD AS ITS SURFACE CYCLONE OCCLUDES. A
   STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED IMPULSE WILL SLIDE
   ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW/SWRN CANADA. BELT OF
   STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ANCHORED IN A WEST-TO-EAST FASHION
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY COOL
   CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS INVOF NRN ROCKIES
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION MON
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF ERN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   OF 20 TO 30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
   LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WILL COOL FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...DOWNSLOPE
   WARMING/DRYING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
   AND RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   THE AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD LEADING TO A LONG DURATION OF
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE LENGTH OF
   CRITICALLY LOW RH APPEARS MORE MARGINAL. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE
   FRINGE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TO THE N/NW...AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND 80S SHOULD ALLOW MIN RH VALUES TO
   REACH 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...FAR NERN CA/NRN NV/SERN ORE...
   IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT A NARROW JUXTAPOSITION OF SUSTAINED WINDS
   AROUND 20 MPH WITH RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT MAY OCCUR DOWNWIND OF
   THE SRN CASCADES/NRN SIERRAS LEADING TO POTENTIAL CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS MON AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
   THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
   MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THESE WLYS WILL
   RESIDE MON AFTERNOON AND THIS IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO A
   CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE ATTM.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/19/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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