Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200849
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN WY AND SERN
   MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
   LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS ITS SURFACE REFLECTION OCCLUDES OVER
   SASKATCHEWAN. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UPSTREAM OF THIS
   WAVE WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE NERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS
   REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT BELT OF STRONG
   MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL GENERALLY LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 42ND
   PARALLEL WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN THE LEE OF
   THE NRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN WY AND SERN
   MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH GENERALLY 50 TO 60
   MPH OF WLY FLOW AT 500 MB AND WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
   20 TO 30 MPH SHOULD OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SUPPORT DOWNWARD MIXING. THE OVERALL RH SCENARIO IS A BIT MORE
   PROBLEMATIC. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSTANTIAL
   UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY HINDERING SURFACE HEATING
   /ESPECIALLY OVER THE MT PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA/...RH VALUES
   MAY NOT BECOME OVERLY LOW. AS SUCH...HAVE SHIFTED THE AREA SWD IN MT
   FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. GIVEN THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY
   IN THE 30S IN SWRN MT/WRN WY AND THAT LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH THE DAY...RH VALUES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO DIP SLIGHTLY
   BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE WY PORTION AND 20 PERCENT IN THE MT PORTION
   OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...NRN NV/EXTREME SERN ORE...
   BRIEF/LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MARGINAL RH/WINDS PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA
   ISSUANCE. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN 15 TO 30 DEGREES THIS
   MORNING FROM 24 HOURS AGO AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
   ALTHOUGH INSOLATION SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR MODERATELY DEEP
   MIXING...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. IN
   ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHER JUST N OF THE REGION
   BENEATH A BELT OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS. STILL...SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD
   TO A SHORT-DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS GIVEN SEVERE DROUGHT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/20/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200953
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN WY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL
   CANADA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A POTENT JET STREAK IMPINGES UPON
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS AND BECOMES FOCUSED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO WRN
   GREAT LAKES BY EARLY WED. ACCOMPANIED SWATH OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS
   WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
   PERIOD...A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ONSHORE ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   THE OVERALL KINEMATIC PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO DAY 1 WITH PERHAPS
   SLIGHTLY WEAKER AFTERNOON WINDS OWING TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
   CONTINUE...MAINTAINING MODERATELY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS. STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
   TRANSFER...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. AS ON MON...RH VALUES MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY
   LOW...BUT SHOULD STILL DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL
   THREAT.
   
   ...SERN MT/NERN AND CNTRL WY...
   ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS ON DAY
   1...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN INCREASING SURFACE RH AS AN
   INFLUX OF GREATER LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OCCURS FROM THE NERN
   PACIFIC ON TUE. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MIXING
   OF THIS RICHER MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITING MIN RH VALUES FROM BREACHING
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/20/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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