Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 200849
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN WY AND SERN
MT...
...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS ITS SURFACE REFLECTION OCCLUDES OVER
SASKATCHEWAN. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UPSTREAM OF THIS
WAVE WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE NERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS
REACHING THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT BELT OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL GENERALLY LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 42ND
PARALLEL WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN THE LEE OF
THE NRN ROCKIES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN WY AND SERN
MT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF PORTIONS OF THE NRN
ROCKIES WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH GENERALLY 50 TO 60
MPH OF WLY FLOW AT 500 MB AND WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH SHOULD OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORT DOWNWARD MIXING. THE OVERALL RH SCENARIO IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSTANTIAL
UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY HINDERING SURFACE HEATING
/ESPECIALLY OVER THE MT PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA/...RH VALUES
MAY NOT BECOME OVERLY LOW. AS SUCH...HAVE SHIFTED THE AREA SWD IN MT
FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS. GIVEN THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 30S IN SWRN MT/WRN WY AND THAT LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...RH VALUES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO DIP SLIGHTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE WY PORTION AND 20 PERCENT IN THE MT PORTION
OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
...NRN NV/EXTREME SERN ORE...
BRIEF/LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MARGINAL RH/WINDS PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA
ISSUANCE. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN 15 TO 30 DEGREES THIS
MORNING FROM 24 HOURS AGO AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH INSOLATION SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR MODERATELY DEEP
MIXING...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHER JUST N OF THE REGION
BENEATH A BELT OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS. STILL...SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD
TO A SHORT-DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS GIVEN SEVERE DROUGHT.
..GRAMS.. 08/20/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 200953
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN WY...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL
CANADA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A POTENT JET STREAK IMPINGES UPON
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS AND BECOMES FOCUSED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO WRN
GREAT LAKES BY EARLY WED. ACCOMPANIED SWATH OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN WY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
THE OVERALL KINEMATIC PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO DAY 1 WITH PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER AFTERNOON WINDS OWING TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINTAINING MODERATELY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS ON MON...RH VALUES MAY ONLY BE MARGINALLY
LOW...BUT SHOULD STILL DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL
THREAT.
...SERN MT/NERN AND CNTRL WY...
ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS ON DAY
1...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN INCREASING SURFACE RH AS AN
INFLUX OF GREATER LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OCCURS FROM THE NERN
PACIFIC ON TUE. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MIXING
OF THIS RICHER MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITING MIN RH VALUES FROM BREACHING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS.. 08/20/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...