Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040952
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 AM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN NV...ERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
   MTNS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL SPLIT
   TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   AND A LEAD IMPULSE EJECTS EWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL CANADA. AS THE
   FORMER FEATURE EVOLVES INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN...ITS ASSOCIATED
   SWATH OF MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL DECREASE AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS OVER SRN CANADA. AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN BY THIS EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN NV...ERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
   MTNS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE TO EXTREME
   DROUGHT
   
   AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE SWRN WA/NWRN ORE COAST DIGS SEWD
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH OF SWLY WINDS AT 500 MB
   WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL SIERRAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE A
   COLD FRONT PASSAGE...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN
   DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING.
   THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
   RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / STRONG WINDS / DRY TSTMS / LONG-TERM
   DROUGHT
   
   A COMPLEX FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING WITH A VARIETY OF FACTORS LEADING TO A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. AN ANTECEDENT DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /AS NOTED ON
   GREAT FALLS AND GLASGOW RAOBS FROM MON EVENING/ WILL REMAIN THROUGH
   THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S/90S. ROBUST
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOME
   FAVORABLY TIMED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT RESULTING IN
   SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE SWRN MT MTNS. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD
   SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ADJACENT LOWER TERRAIN LEADING TO A DRY TSTM
   THREAT INITIALLY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DRY TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
   ALONG A COLD FRONT AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   STRONG GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
   EXCEED 20 MPH AND SHOULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES NEAR 20
   PERCENT FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RH RECOVERY.
   
   ...SRN ID/SWRN MT/NWRN WY...
   MODERATING RH VALUES ALONG WITH MAINLY WET TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
   SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM
   DEVELOPING. RICH LOW-MID/LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
   MID 40S TO MID 50S ATTM/ WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN
   THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT BECOME CRITICAL AS A RESULT. IN
   ADDITION...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT SHOULD
   GENERALLY REMAIN MORE MODERATE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH.
   
   ...SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD/SWRN ND...
   LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. S/SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LEE LOW PRESSURE
   DEEPENS OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN/CNTRL MT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD
   BRIEFLY APPROACH 20 MPH. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME NARROWLY JUXTAPOSED
   WITH LOW RH /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD
   INTO WRN ND/N-CNTRL SD. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NWLY WINDS BUT SIGNIFICANT RH
   RECOVERY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/04/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 041005
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 AM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY
   EWD TOWARDS WRN WY. ASSOCIATED BAND OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   REMAIN ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
   THE SRN GREAT BASIN ON WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
   WILL SLOW IT S/SEWD PROGRESSION FROM DAY 1 AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH
   THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   TO THE S OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SWLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS EMANATING FROM THE SRN CA
   DESERTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
   AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY...MIXING OF
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
   MPH BY PEAK HEATING. THE ERN/SRN EXTENT OF PROBABLE CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
   MASS ATTM ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND RECENT SCATTERED
   RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/04/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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