Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 052135
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2007
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SRN NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ...RESENT PER REQUEST...
   
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ERN ORE/WRN ID PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD AND LIKELY REACH WRN WY BY EARLY
   THU. ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
   CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
   FROM NRN UT TO SRN NV WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY PRIOR TO A
   MORE RAPID ACCELERATION TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A RATHER TIGHT
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NRN CA WITH STRONG HIGH
   PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   SEVERAL FACTORS APPEAR TO CONFINE THE OVERALL AREA OF PROBABLE
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE UP THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
   ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS WILL VEER SOMEWHAT...THE ERN/SRN EXTENT OF
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THIS SURGE ALONG WITH THE
   EXPECTATION OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PRIMARILY IN THIS MOIST
   SECTOR. FARTHER NW...A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SRN NV WITH A
   MUCH COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. THUS...A SMALLER SECTOR OF VERY
   WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IS NOW EXPECTED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   AROUND 20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
   BETWEEN 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AREA...
   LOCALLY GUSTY N/NELY DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING
   OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND THE SRN CASCADES.
   ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ACROSS NRN CA IS RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST
   ATTM...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FURTHERING
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
   SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S INVOF NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
   LEADING TO MARGINALLY LOW RH AROUND 15 PERCENT. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE
   WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. A SLIGHT RELAXATION
   OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24
   HOURS...BUT CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY POOR
   OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 052139
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2007
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO BE INVOF WRN WY EARLY THU SHOULD
   ACCELERATE ITS EWD PROGRESSION AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AS AN
   UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN CANADA DIGS TOWARDS THE NRN
   ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OVER SD WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER
   NWRN KS THU AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD AS THE SD SURFACE
   CYCLONE LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...SWRN SD/FAR ERN WY/WRN NEB PANHANDLE...
   W/NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THU AFTERNOON
   DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
   PASSAGE OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
   RESPECT TO HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR. THE NAM IS FARTHER S WITH THE
   TRACK OF ITS SURFACE LOW AND IS ALSO MUCH MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS
   IMMEDIATELY W/WSW OF THE LOW. EVEN IF THE DRIER GFS FORECAST WOULD
   BE CORRECT...THE OVERALL AREA OF POTENTIAL CRITICALLY LOW RH APPEARS
   TO BE SMALL AND BRIEF IN DURATION. IN ADDITION...POSSIBLE RAINFALL
   IN BOTH THE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 PERIODS MAY ALSO MITIGATE THE OVERALL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT THU AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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