Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100831
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2007
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN UT...NWRN AZ...FAR ERN/SRN
   NV...FAR SERN ID...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NRN CA COAST
   WILL SHIFT NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY THU. ACCOMPANYING
   SWATH OF VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD INLAND AND BECOME
   CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
   FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS CNTRL MT. 
   AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ARC SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE CNTRL
   GREAT BASIN BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE EAST...A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL
   MOVE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE
   WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN UT...NWRN AZ...FAR ERN/SRN
   NV...FAR SERN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   RATHER STRONG S/SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A DRY AIR MASS N/NEWD THROUGH
   THE ERN GREAT BASIN. AT PEAK HEATING...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND
   10 PERCENT IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH MORE
   MARGINAL VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT FARTHER N. ABUNDANT INSOLATION
   COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY TIMED MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL LEAD TO
   RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA. AS
   A RESULT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 TO 30 MPH.
   FARTHER S...WHERE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
   WARMER...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH. A
   COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
   WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE W AND N...ALONG WITH IMPROVED RH
   RECOVERY.
   
   ...TN VALLEY...
   DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE REGION AFTER A COLD FRONT
   PASSAGE ON TUE...AND AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE
   THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
   FRONT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BEHIND IT. RH VALUES WILL BECOME LOWEST JUST
   AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY /AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT/. THIS WILL
   UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN PERVASIVE EXTREME
   TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
   SHOULD PRECLUDE A CRITICAL THREAT. ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY
   INVOF THE COLD FRONT...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD ONLY REACH AROUND 15
   MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/10/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100955
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2007
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL EVOLVE INTO A
   NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN
   NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW SLIDES SWD
   FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS NERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. N/NWLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW
   RH...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST. IN THE WEST...A
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
   DEAMPLIFY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A LARGER-SCALE
   TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE W COAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN FL PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATE WINDS / LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   CONTINUED CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL AID IN AFTERNOON RH BECOMING
   CRITICALLY LOW FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   LOWER 80S. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW /FROM 30 TO 40 MPH/
   SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE A RELATIVELY-SHALLOW MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
   STILL...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY REACH 15 MPH PRODUCING A FEW
   HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AROUND PEAK HEATING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/10/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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