Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120822
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NWRN/CNTRL/SERN AZ...EXTREME SWRN
UT...EXTREME SWRN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SAT. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 60 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER SRN
CA INTO AZ BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE SOUTHEAST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN
SURFACE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONTINENTAL
TRAJECTORIES WITH LOW RH N OF CNTRL FL.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NWRN/CNTRL/SERN AZ...EXTREME SWRN
UT...EXTREME SWRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W COAST...SWLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. DESPITE MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
STRONG...RELATIVELY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROBABLE CIRRUS
CANOPY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING FROM
CNTRL AZ NWWD. FARTHER SE...MORE PREVALENT INSOLATION SHOULD
COMPENSATE FOR THE EFFECTS OF WEAKER MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM.
THUS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE AROUND
20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. RH VALUES WILL
BE LOWEST IN SERN AZ/SWRN NM...FROM 7 TO 12 PERCENT...WITH HIGHER
VALUES FARTHER NW /AROUND 12 TO 15 PERCENT/.
..GRAMS.. 10/12/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120951
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY EARLY SUN. AN
ACCOMPANYING BELT OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
SRN AZ/NM ON SAT AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN CO. SURFACE DRY LINE WILL ARC S/SWWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / MODEST LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
RATHER STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGHER-END/WIDESPREAD CRITICAL EVENT SAT AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONCERNS OF MARGINAL DRYNESS WITH BOTH THE AMBIENT AIR
MASS AND FUELS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING 500 MB FLOW AROUND 70 TO 80
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ AND SWRN/CNTRL NM PROVIDING
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. DYNAMIC COOLING/MOISTENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE
COUNTERACTED SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MODESTLY LOW RH VALUES /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/ ACROSS
LOWER TERRAIN LOCALES.
..GRAMS.. 10/12/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...