Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120822
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NWRN/CNTRL/SERN AZ...EXTREME SWRN
   UT...EXTREME SWRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
   TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SAT. A STRONG
   MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 60 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER SRN
   CA INTO AZ BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE SOUTHEAST...SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WEAKEN
   SURFACE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONTINENTAL
   TRAJECTORIES WITH LOW RH N OF CNTRL FL.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NWRN/CNTRL/SERN AZ...EXTREME SWRN
   UT...EXTREME SWRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W COAST...SWLY
   FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. DESPITE MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
   STRONG...RELATIVELY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROBABLE CIRRUS
   CANOPY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING FROM
   CNTRL AZ NWWD. FARTHER SE...MORE PREVALENT INSOLATION SHOULD
   COMPENSATE FOR THE EFFECTS OF WEAKER MID-LEVEL MOMENTUM.
   THUS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE AROUND
   20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. RH VALUES WILL
   BE LOWEST IN SERN AZ/SWRN NM...FROM 7 TO 12 PERCENT...WITH HIGHER
   VALUES FARTHER NW /AROUND 12 TO 15 PERCENT/.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/12/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120951
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE GREAT
   BASIN/SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY EARLY SUN. AN
   ACCOMPANYING BELT OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
   SRN AZ/NM ON SAT AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WILL PROMOTE LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN CO. SURFACE DRY LINE WILL ARC S/SWWD FROM THE
   LOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / MODEST LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   RATHER STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
   HIGHER-END/WIDESPREAD CRITICAL EVENT SAT AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...CONCERNS OF MARGINAL DRYNESS WITH BOTH THE AMBIENT AIR
   MASS AND FUELS MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. MODEL GUIDANCE
   FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING 500 MB FLOW AROUND 70 TO 80
   MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ AND SWRN/CNTRL NM PROVIDING
   FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
   AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. DYNAMIC COOLING/MOISTENING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE
   COUNTERACTED SOMEWHAT BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING. THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN MODESTLY LOW RH VALUES /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/ ACROSS
   LOWER TERRAIN LOCALES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/12/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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