Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 210907
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MTNS/INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL MTNS/VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM...WRN TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SRN
AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRY
AIR/MODERATE WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES. FURTHER
WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST SUPPORTING A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. VERY STRONG SFC WINDS AND LOW RH READINGS WILL
SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
SRN CA. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH READINGS OVER MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN
INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF
SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 30-50 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 75 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
A VERY STRONG SANTA ANA/OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WAS DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS /-15 MB
BETWEEN TPH AND LAX/ AND MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS IN THE
LOWEST 10-20 KFT WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG SFC WINDS /SUSTAINED UP TO
50 MPH/ DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INITIALLY...BEFORE
DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE PERIOD. A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN COMBINED WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL
SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 70S/80S DURING THE DAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT VERY
POOR TO NO RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RE-STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS INCREASE...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS /GUSTS OVER 75 MPH/ EXPECTED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
THROUGH PASSES/BELOW CANYONS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL CA COASTAL MTNS/VALLEYS AND
SRN CA COASTAL VALLEYS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...SLIGHTLY WEAKER OFFSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CA MTNS AND ACROSS THE SRN CA
COASTAL VALLEYS...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS. SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF SRN
CA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING
/PRIOR TO 15Z/ AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHEN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS
RE-STRENGTHEN.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN/CENTRAL NM AND PORTIONS OF WEST
TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WNWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT
JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL MIX TOWARDS THE SFC TO SUPPORT MODERATE WLY WINDS.
ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WNWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE
OVER THE AREA....THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHERE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 60S...VERY LOW DEWPTS
IN THE -5 TO 10 DEG F RANGE WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. FURTHER EAST
OVER WEST TX...LOW DEWPTS IN THE 10S/20S COMBINED WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT PRIOR TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRESENT AN ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AS AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OCCURS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF
MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS OVERNIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL END THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT BY 03Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 4-8 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE...A STRONG
N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF CA WILL SUPPORT STRONG NLY WINDS
FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND WRN AZ. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
/LOWER-MID 80S F/ VERY LOW DEWPTS FROM 0-10 F WILL SUPPORT MIN RH
READINGS FROM 4-8 PERCENT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...BUT MODERATE NELY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DESERTS OF SCENTRAL AZ/SERN
AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NRN/ERN AZ. COMBINED WITH LOW RH READINGS/POOR RH RECOVERY WILL
SUPPORT A DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN
AZ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
AHEAD OF PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/LOWER
80S COMBINED WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRODUCE MIN RH
READINGS FROM 25-35 PERCENT. MARGINAL SFC WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
..CROSBIE.. 10/21/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 210911
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MTNS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE COASTAL VALLEYS OF SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SRN
AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
TOMORROW. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST...PROVIDING FOR NEAR RECORD WARMTH OVER
MUCH OF CA. A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND PROVIDE FOR STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL/EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SRN CA AND PORTIONS OF AZ.
ELSEWHERE...GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MILD TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RH READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL AND SRN TX ALONG
WITH THESE WINDS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS
OF SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 35-50 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 75 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 4-8 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
/12-18Z/ ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS/MTNS OF SRN CA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS /SUSTAINED UP TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 75 MPH/ WILL OCCUR
THROUGH PASSES AND BELOW CANYONS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN CA WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 4-8 PERCENT RH
READINGS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF OFFSHORE GRADIENTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
10 MPH REDUCTION IN WIND GUSTS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
AREA - COASTAL VALLEYS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK AREA...WEAKER WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL AVERAGE
FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. SIMILAR TO THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED E-NE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
A STRONG PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
PLATEAU/MOGOLLON RIM REGION AND THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE MODERATE E-NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 5-10
PERCENT COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. FURTHER WEST...MODEST NLY WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT. VERY DRY AIR WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS
AREA.
...WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN TX...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...NWLY
WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW DEWPTS
IN THE 20S/30S WILL OFFSET BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM 65-75 DEG
F TO PRODUCE MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT. THE LACK OF A LONG
TERM DROUGHT AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION LATE ON DAY ONE OVER
SRN/CENTRAL TX ALONG WITH MARGINAL RH READINGS OVER WEST TX WILL
PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA AT THIS TIME.
..CROSBIE.. 10/21/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...