Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240857
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN
CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ARIZONA...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT/OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD TODAY...ALBEIT WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS...THE AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY DRY AND WINDY FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF SRN CA AGAIN TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES VERY LITTLE...BUT
WEAKENS GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE SANTA
ANA WINDS...THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE ELY GRADIENT
WINDS AND LOW RH OVER SRN AZ.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE NATION...MODERATE NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SRN PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
MARGINALLY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
NORTH...WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
LEADS TO THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN
CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM
4-8 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
THE ONGOING SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY...WITH A BRIEF RESPITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT. ELY/NELY WILL BE SUSTAINED AT
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUST TO ABOUT 50 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 18 UTC...AND
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO MAINLY BELOW 20 MPH BETWEEN 18 AND 03 UTC.
A REDEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL WIND CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOLLOWING
SUNSET...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND GUSTING OVER 30
MPH IN TERRAIN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. THE RH WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH A MINIMUM RH OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND A MEAGER RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT /MAXIMUM RH 15 TO
20 PERCENT/. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND 90S AGAIN TODAY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ELY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS
FROM 10-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN ELY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS SRN AZ TODAY. ELY WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH IN TERRAIN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...THE DRY AIRMASS /MINIMUM RH
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
...ERN TX...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMBINED WITH
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LEADS TO NLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS ERN TX TODAY. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S SHOULD KEEP THE
MINIMUM RH AT OR ABOVE 25 PERCENT. SO WHILE WINDS MEET THE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODERATE RH PRECLUDES
THE ISSUANCE OF A LARGE SCALE CRITICAL AREA.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AS WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TODAY...A LEE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH IS WARM
AND THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE WINDS /SLY TO SWLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH/
AND RELATIVELY LOW RH /MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT FROM ERN MT TO
THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS/ RESULTS IN NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.
..BRIGHT.. 10/24/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240858
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT OVER SRN CA DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WRN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ALSO REDUCES THE ELY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
OVER SRN AZ TO BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INITIATING A CUTOFF SYSTEM ALONG
THE SRN ORE/NRN CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...SRN CA...
WHILE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT SHOULD
DECREASE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY...WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
OFFSHORE ELY/NELY SURFACE WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
NIGHT HOURS. THE RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS /MINIMUM RH 6 TO 12 PERCENT/...BUT OFFSHORE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH THE
COASTAL REGION DURING THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...THE DRY AND WARM
AIRMASS... ONGOING FIRES...AND SHIFTING WINDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SIERRA MOUNTAINS...
SWLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INCREASES OVER CNTRL/NRN CA
THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10 TO 15
PERCENT AND SWLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH...LEADING
TO LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
..BRIGHT.. 10/24/2007
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...