Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240857
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN
   CALIFORNIA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ARIZONA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT/OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   PERIOD TODAY...ALBEIT WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.
   NEVERTHELESS...THE AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY DRY AND WINDY FOR
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
   VALLEYS OF SRN CA AGAIN TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES VERY LITTLE...BUT
   WEAKENS GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE SANTA
   ANA WINDS...THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE ELY GRADIENT
   WINDS AND LOW RH OVER SRN AZ.
   
   ELSEWHERE AROUND THE NATION...MODERATE NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
   THE SRN PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
   LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
   MARGINALLY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
   NORTH...WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
   AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
   LEADS TO THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN
   CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH
   GUSTS OVER 50 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM
   4-8 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   THE ONGOING SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   MUCH OF TODAY...WITH A BRIEF RESPITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
   OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT. ELY/NELY WILL BE SUSTAINED AT
   20 TO 30 MPH AND GUST TO ABOUT 50 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 18 UTC...AND
   THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO MAINLY BELOW 20 MPH BETWEEN 18 AND 03 UTC.
   A REDEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL WIND CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOLLOWING
   SUNSET...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH AND GUSTING OVER 30
   MPH IN TERRAIN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. THE RH WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LOW
   THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH A MINIMUM RH OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT THIS
   AFTERNOON AND A MEAGER RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT /MAXIMUM RH 15 TO
   20 PERCENT/. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
   80S AND 90S AGAIN TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ELY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS
   FROM 10-15 PERCENT...LONG TERM DROUGHT
   
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN ELY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
   ACROSS SRN AZ TODAY. ELY WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE MID MORNING THROUGH
   EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
   APPROACHING 40 MPH IN TERRAIN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.  NEVERTHELESS...THE DRY AIRMASS /MINIMUM RH
   BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
   COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM LATE
   MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...ERN TX...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMBINED WITH
   A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LEADS TO NLY
   FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS ERN TX TODAY. WINDS THIS
   AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 30S AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S SHOULD KEEP THE
   MINIMUM RH AT OR ABOVE 25 PERCENT. SO WHILE WINDS MEET THE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODERATE RH PRECLUDES
   THE ISSUANCE OF A LARGE SCALE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AS WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TODAY...A LEE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER
   DEFINED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE WRN
   DAKOTAS TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH IS WARM
   AND THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE WINDS /SLY TO SWLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH/
   AND RELATIVELY LOW RH /MINIMUM RH 15 TO 20 PERCENT FROM ERN MT TO
   THE FAR WRN DAKOTAS/ RESULTS IN NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 10/24/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240858
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2007
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT OVER SRN CA DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY AS THE
   SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WRN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE
   WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ALSO REDUCES THE ELY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
   OVER SRN AZ TO BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.  OTHERWISE
   THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY TO
   THURSDAY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
   RIVER VALLEY RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INITIATING A CUTOFF SYSTEM ALONG
   THE SRN ORE/NRN CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   WHILE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SANTA ANA EVENT SHOULD
   DECREASE BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THURSDAY...WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
   OFFSHORE ELY/NELY SURFACE WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
   NIGHT HOURS. THE RH WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW OVER THE INTERIOR
   MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS /MINIMUM RH 6 TO 12 PERCENT/...BUT OFFSHORE
   WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH THE
   COASTAL REGION DURING THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS...THE DRY AND WARM
   AIRMASS... ONGOING FIRES...AND SHIFTING WINDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
   
   ...SIERRA MOUNTAINS...
   SWLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT INCREASES OVER CNTRL/NRN CA
   THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10 TO 15
   PERCENT AND SWLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH...LEADING
   TO LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 10/24/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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