Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 121842
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CST MON NOV 12 2007
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   CORRECTED GRAPHIC
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN MT/SOUTHERN ID...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
   STREAM AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IN THE
   SOUTH...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL EVOLVE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. A COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...TO THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A WEAK SANTA ANA EVENT
   EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S...RELATIVE
   HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BRIEFLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IN
   THE HIGH PLAINS...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
   FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
   MONDAY...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN
   PREVIOUS DAYS.  ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   WILL EXIST WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES...BRINGING STRONG WINDS SOME FIRE WEATHER RISK.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SOUTHERN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LONG-TERM DROUGHT
   
   THE EXPECTED SANTA ANA WIND EVENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN
   GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH FROM FORECAST MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
   OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS TREND CONTINUES...IN ALL
   MODELS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF
   HIGH TERRAIN DURING MONDAY...AS A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL
   AID IN CREATING OFF-SHORE WIND CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
   THE NEGATIVES TO THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK REMAIN IN THE
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
   DRAMATICALLY BELOW VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN
   THE LOCAL AREAS OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN VALLEYS WHERE VALUES
   MIGHT FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   ARE NOT WARMER THAN NORMAL.  THEREFORE...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   RISK WILL REMAIN ONLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE STRONG AND
   GUSTY WINDS...LIKELY IN REGIONS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WESTERN MT/SOUTHERN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN WESTERN MONTANA AND
   SOUTHERN IDAHO AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE THROUGH MOVES
   THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL CREATE A
   STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AROUND
   25 TO 40 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS...ADDITIONALLY...SOME AREAS WILL
   EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN
   TERRAIN INTO VALLEYS...WITH VALUES FALLING TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT. 
   WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE AREA...THE STRONG
   SURFACE WINDS...RH VALUES...AND DRY FUELS IN AREAS DUE TO LONG-TERM
   DROUGHT IN THE REGION WILL BRING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK.
   
   ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
   AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 30
   PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LACK OF SIGNIFICANTLY
   HIGH TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER RISK.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 11/12/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CST MON NOV 12 2007
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF ND/EASTERN MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL MIDWEST DURING
   THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
   THE FRONT WILL CREATE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE REGION WITH
   A FIRE WEATHER RISK.  IN THE SOUTHEAST...A SIMILAR AIRMASS TO THE
   PAST SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS...AND SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
   WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  IN SOUTHERN
   CALIFORNIA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL AS A COOLER AND DRIER
   AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   BETWEEN THE GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE REGION RELAXES
   QUITE A BIT...AND OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. 
   FINALLY...IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
   SOME STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MOST OF ND/EASTERN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
   
   A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
   THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY
   STRONG WITH SOME AREAS OBSERVING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP TO 15
   TO 25 PERCENT IN AREAS...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY
   COOL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND MODERATELY LOW RH
   WILL CREATE A FIRE WEATHER RISK.
   
   ...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS DURING
   THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND MOVES TO THE EAST...REDUCING THE SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RELAXING WIND SPEEDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
    WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL IN THE AFTERNOON...WIND SPEEDS
   WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO HELP MITIGATE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   THIS AREA WILL APPROACH A CRITICAL RISK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
   WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
   BEHIND A DEVELOPING DRYLINE...AND WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
   CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S
   TO LOW 80S F.  WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN
   NORMAL...A FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL EXIST.
   
   ...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS
   DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IS NOT
   EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 11/12/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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