Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140847
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 AM CST WED NOV 14 2007
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NEB...WRN/CNTRL KS...WRN
   OK...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NRN
   PLAINS WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND BECOME CENTERED
   FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY BY
   EARLY THU. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LK MI SEWD TO THE TX
   PANHANDLE WILL QUICKLY PUSH E/SEWD REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD/CNTRL
   GULF COAST. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SLIDE
   SEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE CNTRL CONUS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NEB...WRN/CNTRL KS...WRN
   OK...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / MODEST LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   SUSTAINED N/NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY THIS
   AFTERNOON EVEN AS THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SE /IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/ AND NE /IN THE
   HEART OF THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT/ OF THE REGION.
   UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS WRN NEB/SD
   WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CRITICAL AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTORS WILL BE THE EFFECTS OF
   AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL COOLING AFTER RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
   SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS NOTED IN SATELLITE AND SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NRN CO/SRN NEB. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE
   CONSISTENT WITH SLIDING THIS CLOUDINESS SEWD ACROSS KS THIS MORNING.
   ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RETARD SURFACE HEATING...GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUD
   COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH/SHIFT EWD AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES
   THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   MARGINAL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
   60S...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/14/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141000
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CST WED NOV 14 2007
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL GULF COAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
   THROUGH THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH
   AN AXIS FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRI. UPSTREAM
   RIDGE OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN AS AN IMPULSE
   EJECTS EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ALONG
   THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL PUSH THROUGH FL
   AND OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE
   SRN PLAINS AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL GULF COAST...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
   
   GUSTY N/NWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE EARLY THU MORNING AS A
   COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS...MODERATELY DEEP
   MIXING WILL PROMOTE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
   SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 20 MPH. SIGNIFICANT DRYING
   WILL OFFSET THE NET THERMAL LOSS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH VALUES FROM 25
   TO 30 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURE MAINLY PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
   70S.
   
   ...ERN TX/WRN LA...
   EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH RH
   VALUES FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT COMMON. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   BE LIGHTER OWING TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
   ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SRN OK/NRN TX. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT RELAXES...MORE MODERATE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE LIKELY.
   GIVEN THE HIGH KBDI AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN RECENT
   DAYS...AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT COULD OCCUR.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SEWD INVOF RED RIVER AND A LEE
   TROUGH DEVELOPS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SW AND
   RAPIDLY INCREASE THU AFTERNOON. A SHORT DURATION OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS
   OF 20 TO 25 MPH APPEARS LIKELY AT PEAK HEATING. GIVEN AN ANTECEDENT
   VERY DRY AIR MASS...RH SHOULD APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES /AROUND 15 TO
   20 PERCENT/...AS TEMPERATURE WARM TO MARGINAL READINGS INTO THE
   UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS MAY LEAD TO RELATIVELY BRIEF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS GIVEN NEGLIGIBLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/14/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home