Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150850
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL TX ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
   THE FL PENINSULA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE
   MID-MS RIVER VALLEY WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY EARLY FRI AS IT
   SHIFTS EWD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND SERN CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT WILL RAPIDLY PUSH OFF THE GULF COAST AND THE ERN SEABOARD WITH
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE SEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GULF
   COAST BY 12Z FRI. A LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY SWD ALONG THE HIGH
   PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - S-CNTRL TX ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
   THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   BENEATH 40 TO 50 MPH N/NWLY FLOW AT 850 MB...GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD
   S/EWD AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MARCHES OFFSHORE. MODERATELY DEEP MIXING
   WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD
   SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
   DIMINISH TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TX PORTION OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY APPROACHES. DESPITE COOLER
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS /GENERALLY IN THE
   60S/...SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED GIVEN UPSTREAM DEW POINTS IN
   THE TEENS/20S. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN SRN
   TX/LA TO AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT FROM SRN MS EWD TO THE FL
   PENINSULA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD AS A LEE TROUGH
   DEVELOPS SWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL RAPIDLY
   INTENSIFY IN THE LOW-LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP FROM EXTREME
   NERN NM NEWD INTO WRN KS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MOST PROBABLE
   CORRIDOR FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE A RATHER
   SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 20 TO
   25 MPH AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. GIVEN THE AMBIENT
   DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION /SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO/...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 15
   PERCENT.
   
   ...SRN GA/AL AND NRN FL...
   SIMILAR OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS IN THE
   CRITICAL AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...SHOWER/TSTMS HAVE
   SPREAD INTO SRN AL THROUGH SWRN GA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LINGERING
   EFFECTS ON FUELS AND SHORTER DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RH SHOULD
   LEND TO A MORE LOCALIZED/MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/15/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150957
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS SERN CANADA...A
   QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER
   LOW OVER NRN BAJA CA WILL EJECT E/NEWD AND SHOULD REACH FAR W TX BY
   EARLY SAT. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE
   WRN GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING
   THE N-CNTRL CONUS WILL HELP INDUCE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE
   UPPER MIDWEST SWWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY OF TX INTO S-CNTRL OK...
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
   CNTRL GULF COAST AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20
   MPH DESPITE A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS
   UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH POTENTIAL
   HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTION OF THE NRN
   BAJA CA LOW. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE FROM DAY 1. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY AIR
   MASS...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY LOW /NEAR 20
   TO 25 PERCENT/ AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   A VERY DRY AIR MASS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN STATES
   INTO CNTRL FL FROM DAY 1 AS NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. CRITICALLY
   LOW RH WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
   HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH FRI MORNING
   AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES. SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
   LIKELY RANGE FROM 8 TO 15 MPH...MITIGATING THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 11/15/2007
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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