Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280741
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN AND NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN
   KS...SERN CO...ERN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD ZONE OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH AND LOWERING
   PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WINDY PATTERN
   TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES...WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR
   THE SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES WILL ALSO RESULT
   IN DRY WEATHER AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES THERE ALTHOUGH WINDS
   WILL BE LIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD
   ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY TUE
   MORNING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN AND NWRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN
   KS...SERN CO...ERN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
   
   STRONG WINDS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY INCREASE
   THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND MIXING INCREASES. SUSTAINED
   SWLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS OF 40-50
   MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
   THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR SWRN KS AND WRN OK. THE RH FORECAST IS A
   BIT COMPLICATED GIVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND ALSO THE
   PROSPECT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MIN VALUES OF 20-25
   PERCENT ARE LIKELY IN GENERAL...WITH VALUES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
   ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE FACT THAT
   MOST MODELS HAVE DONE HORRIBLY IN DEPICTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES. FOR EXAMPLE...NAM DEWPOINTS WERE
   OVER-FORECAST BY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES F ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
   TEMPERATURES UNDER-FORECAST BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES F AS WELL.
   THUS...WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF AN EXTREME AREA ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
   EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DRIEST AREAS.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SERN STATES TODAY RESULTING IN
   MILD AND DRY WEATHER. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...MIN RH VALUES
   WILL DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
   BE LIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS...GA...AND FL...MITIGATING THE THREAT ON
   THE LARGE SCALE ALTHOUGH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A RELATIVELY
   HIGHER THREAT MAY EXIST OVER NRN AL WHERE EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   PERSISTS AND WINDS NEAR 10 MPH.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/28/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280801
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 AM CST MON JAN 28 2008
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN OK...MOST OF TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING RAPIDLY EWD OUT OF THE
   PLAINS...CROSSING THE MS RIVER BY 00Z AND INTO PA AND NY BY 12Z WED.
   AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN IA SWWD
   ACROSS NW OK AND NWRN TX AT 12Z TUE...AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
   SEWD...CLEARING THE STATE OF TX BY 00Z. A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT
   WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RH
   PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS.  
   
   ELSEWHERE...SWLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RAISE RH LEVELS
   OVER THE SERN STATES...ALTHOUGH A POCKET OF DRY AIR WILL EXIST OVER
   THE CAROLINAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN OK...MOST OF TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   A POWERFUL WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
   PASSAGE...BEGINNING OVER CNTRL AND WRN OK BY MID MORNING...AND INTO
   CENTRAL TX BY MID AFTERNOON. NWLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN COOLER
   TEMPERATURES...LOW RH IN THE TEENS AND 20 PERCENT RANGE WILL BE
   COMMON FROM SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...WITH VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT OVER
   DEEP S TX.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/28/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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