Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 100731
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2008
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR ERN GA...MUCH OF THE
   CAROLINAS...SERN VA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POWERFUL POLAR JET /500 MB WINDS AROUND 150 MPH/...WILL TRANSLATE
   FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC STATES
   AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS
   THE NORTHEAST. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NERN ONTARIO
   WILL OCCLUDE AS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE NRN NEW
   ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWING RAPIDLY EWD
   FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY TO OFF THE ERN SEABOARD BY
   EARLY MON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR ERN GA...MUCH OF THE
   CAROLINAS...SERN VA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / DROUGHT
   
   A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH WIDESPREAD
   LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO
   MID-AFTERNOON. WITH DOWNSLOPE WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING TO
   AROUND 35 TO 55 MPH AT 5000 FT AGL AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
   MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS APPEAR TO HAVE A VERY POOR HANDLE ON THE
   DRY AIR MASS SITUATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE CURRENT DEW POINTS
   ARE IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S. THE 00Z GFS INITIALIZED SURFACE DEW
   POINTS AROUND 12 TO 20 DEG F TOO HIGH COMPARED TO 00Z RAOBS FROM BHM
   TO ROA...WHILE THE 00Z NAM IS GENERALLY 6 TO 12 DEG F TOO HIGH WITH
   DEW POINTS AT 07Z WHEN COMPARED TO ASOS OBSERVATIONS. THUS...RH
   TODAY WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LOWER THAN INDICATED IN FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS/SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
   60S S TO 50S N...RH VALUES OF 12 TO 20 PERCENT SHOULD BE COMMON BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD
   FRONT PASSAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...MUCH OF FL...
   AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING...MODEST NLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL ADVECT A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR MASS INTO ALL BUT S FL BY
   THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
   70S...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 30 PERCENT...WITH SEVERAL
   HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW DURATION EXPECTED OVER THE PANHANDLE AND N
   FL. THE LACK OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH WILL PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL AREA ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/10/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 100849
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2008
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
   LIKELY REACHING THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT
   HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT INVOF TX
   PANHANDLE BY MON AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
   TRACKS EWD...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
   DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
   OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
   DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW RH WILL BE
   PERVASIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST.
   
   ...E-CNTRL NM/HIGH PLAINS OF NW TX...
   MODERATE WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WARM/DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
   THE AREA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
   THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S...RESULTING IN CRITICALLY LOW RH FROM 10
   TO 15 PERCENT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE INTENSITY OF WIND SPEEDS AT
   PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS MAY EXCEED 20
   MPH...IT AMPLIFIES THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER SW THAN THE
   ECMWF/NAM AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS STRONGER KINEMATIC FIELDS OVER THE
   REGION. GUIDANCE ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING A GREATER
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS DURING THE EVENING AFTER A COLD FRONT
   PASSAGE...BUT COINCIDENT WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE AND
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ATTM...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING
   A CRITICAL AREA AND MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DELINEATION IN A FUTURE
   OUTLOOK.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/10/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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