Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250927
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
   TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NM/TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
   PANHANDLES/WESTERN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
   EJECT OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
   VALLEY ON MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS
   SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...RESULTING IN HIGH SURFACE WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR AN
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
    SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...A CRITICAL RISK WILL
   EXIST IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...AND
   SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO SIMILAR...BUT NOT AS
   EXTREME...WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN FLORIDA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
   WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
   TEXAS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE DROUGHT...LOW RH VALUES...STRONG AND
   GUSTY WINDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
   
   AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
   ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...A MID-LEVEL JET STREAM CORE WILL AID IN
   CREATING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE
   REGION...WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER
   GUSTS TO PERHAPS 50 MPH. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER
   A DRYLINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION BY MID-MORNING...WITH RELATIVE
   HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE DURING
   THE MID-AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO AN
   UNSEASONABLY WARM MID 70S TO MID 80S F.  THESE CONDITIONS...COUPLED
   WITH A MODERATE DROUGHT IN THE REGION DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
   RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 30-60 DAYS...WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR FIRE GROWTH GIVEN DRY FUELS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN NM/TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
   PANHANDLES/WESTERN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   VALUES
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
   THE MID TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
   WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 25 TO 40 MPH
   SUSTAINED...AND HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   COOL...WITH VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F. A DRY AIRMASS WILL
   EXIST AS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEHIND THE
   FRONT...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
   PERCENT. THEREFORE...WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MEET
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT MOVES
   THROUGH THE PANHANDLE...WINDS WILL SHIFT DIRECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
   NORTHWEST RATHER QUICKLY CAUSING A CHANGE IN ANY FIRE BEHAVIOR.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL FL...
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS
   ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S F.  WIND
   SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IS NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 02/25/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250955
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BECOMES VERY AMPLIFIED DURING
   THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A STRONG RIDGE
   IN THE WEST...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
   TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.  WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION....WITH
   SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN...WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST COAST
   AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND A AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
   EXIST FROM OHIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IN SOUTHERN
   TEXAS...THE COMBINATION OF WIND SPEEDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   VALUES WILL HELP CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THAT
   REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SOUTHERN TEXAS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...STRONG AND GUSTY
   WINDS
   
   STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
   WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY EVENING...AND WIND SPEEDS ON
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH.
   TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...WITH
   HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F...AND RELATIVE
   HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
   CONDITIONS THEREFORE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS CRITICAL AS ON
   DAY 1...GIVEN THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ARE MET AND A RISK EXISTS.  THE
   THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS RH RECOVERY WILL BE
   STRONG WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 02/25/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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