Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270856
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 AM CST WED FEB 27 2008
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE ERN
   CONUS...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z THU. COOL AND DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
   SURFACE COLD FRONT. EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD
   FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/DEEP SOUTH BY EARLY THU. AS A
   LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL
   SWLYS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS OVER MOST OF THE
   SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...CNTRL FL...
   GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON OWING
   TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED
   SURFACE SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH 15 TO 20 MPH. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
   /08Z SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ OVER NRN FL WILL SPREAD
   SEWD ENCOMPASSING ALL BUT SRN FL BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW-NORMAL /HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
   60S/...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 35 PERCENT. SCATTERED
   SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ON TUE INTO EARLY THIS MORNING MAY LARGELY
   MITIGATE CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL. WHERE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE REMAINED
   LIGHT...A LOCALIZED CRITICAL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL TX...
   AS EVIDENCED BY TUCUMCARI NM PROFILER...LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW HAS
   RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS. LATEST
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL PEAK LATER THIS
   MORNING PRIOR TO WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...SUSTAINED
   SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE /RANGING FROM 12 TO 20 MPH AT PEAK
   HEATING/. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO TUE /REACHING
   INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70/...AND LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES OF 12
   TO 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS/SMITH.. 02/27/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270948
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CST WED FEB 27 2008
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR W-CNTRL TX/FAR SWRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SEWD FROM THE
   CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY FRI.
   ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SRN MANITOBA BY
   29/00Z...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. S/SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ERN CONUS
   RIDGE AXIS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - W-CNTRL TX/FAR SWRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / HIGH KBDI
   
   A WARM AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. STRONG WINDS
   WILL DEVELOP FARTHER E WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
   TIGHTEST ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX/OK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
   JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN
   DIFFERING MODEL GUIDANCE...THE MOST PROBABLE ZONE SHOULD BECOME
   CENTERED WITHIN A SW TO NE AXIS FROM MAF TO LTS. AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO
   BETWEEN 10 TO 20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 20 TO
   25 MPH...SUFFICIENT FOR A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS/SMITH.. 02/27/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home