Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 040800
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE GULF COAST
REGION WILL DEEPEN AND QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...INFLUENCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH A PREDOMINANT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
DRY AIR/CRITICALLY LOW RHS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE
WEST A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING.
AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...BRINGING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO EASTERN NM AND
WESTERN TX.
...EASTERN NM AND WEST TX...
OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. BY AFTERNOON...DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS/ADIABATIC WARMING AND
DRYING ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS EASTERN NM AND EXTREME
WESTERN TX. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
WARMING INTO THE MID 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH THE LOWEST RHS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION OF TEXAS WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
OF TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE CRITICAL WITH FORECAST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS WILL
BE NORTH OF THE LOWEST RHS. HOWEVER...CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONGER LEE TROUGH THAN MODEL FORECAST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONGER
GRADIENT WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO
REACH 6000-7000 FT...MIXING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH TO THE
SURFACE.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LIES WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THE WIND
FORECAST...AND IN RECENT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR...RECENT PRECIPITATION MAY HINDER A
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..HURLBUT.. 03/04/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 040848
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE EAST...A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
NORTHEAST...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...WEAK DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
A SECOND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH DRY AND WARM WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN TX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AFFECTING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
...SERN STATES...
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. ATTM...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND MID 30S...ALTHOUGH DURATIONS OF LOW RHS
WILL BE LIMITED. RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
...SRN CA...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON RHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS VALLEYS AND
NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 MPH...ALTHOUGH HIGHER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. MOIST FUELS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
...SWRN TX/SERN NM...
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE....WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN TX AND SERN NM. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE
FORECASTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S...MODEL
PREDICTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A CRITICAL AREA AT
THIS TIME.
..HURLBUT.. 03/04/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...