Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040800
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE GULF COAST
   REGION WILL DEEPEN AND QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
   TODAY...INFLUENCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.
   A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT...ALTHOUGH A PREDOMINANT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
   DRY AIR/CRITICALLY LOW RHS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...IN THE
   WEST A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST AND THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING.
   AHEAD OF THIS...A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP...BRINGING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO EASTERN NM AND
   WESTERN TX.
   
   ...EASTERN NM AND WEST TX...
   
   OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH
   EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEW
   MEXICO. BY AFTERNOON...DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS/ADIABATIC WARMING AND
   DRYING ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS EASTERN NM AND EXTREME
   WESTERN TX. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
   WARMING INTO THE MID 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
   NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
   INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH THE LOWEST RHS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRANSPECOS REGION OF TEXAS WHERE SINGLE DIGITS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
   
   MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS FURTHER NORTH
   ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION
   OF TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE CRITICAL WITH FORECAST SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS WILL
   BE NORTH OF THE LOWEST RHS. HOWEVER...CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS
   STRONGER LEE TROUGH THAN MODEL FORECAST...WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONGER
   GRADIENT WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL
   BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO
   REACH 6000-7000 FT...MIXING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH TO THE
   SURFACE.  
   
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LIES WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THE WIND
   FORECAST...AND IN RECENT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
   ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR...RECENT PRECIPITATION MAY HINDER A
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/04/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040848
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE EAST...A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
   NORTHEAST...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
   MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...WEAK DRY
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. 
   
   A SECOND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
   ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH DRY AND WARM WEST TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN TX. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AFFECTING
   SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   
   FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER
   MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. ATTM...AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND MID 30S...ALTHOUGH DURATIONS OF LOW RHS
   WILL BE LIMITED. RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. 
   
   ...SRN CA...
   
   OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
   AFTERNOON RHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS VALLEYS AND
   NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 MPH...ALTHOUGH HIGHER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
   FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. MOIST FUELS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT
   A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   
   ...SWRN TX/SERN NM...
   
   FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE....WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
   BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN TX AND SERN NM. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE
   FORECASTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S...MODEL
   PREDICTABILITY APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A CRITICAL AREA AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/04/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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