Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050803
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 AM CST WED MAR 05 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV...SRN CA...WRN AZ......
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...SWRN NM......
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE NORTHEASTERN
   STATES TODAY...WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE
   ATLANTIC WATERS. IN THE SOUTHEAST...THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   FOLLOW THE FRONT ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL LIMIT
   WIDESPREAD FIRE POTENTIAL.
   
   IN THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NORTHERN ROCKIES....AND NORTHERN
   PLAINS...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
   FOLLOWING.  MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHWEST A DRY STALLED FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CREATING
   WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND IT AND WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NV...SRN CA...WRN AZ......
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CRITICALLY LOW RHS...WIND...AND DEVELOPING
   DROUGHT
   
   A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN
   NV...NRN AZ AND NM...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
   SAG SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
   SOMEWHAT...THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT MUCH IN THE
   WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL ALLOW MINIMUM
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
   AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS AND LOWER VALLEYS. 7 DAY
   MPE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION HAS
   FALLEN ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WITH LACK OF PRECIP AND
   WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS...AS SHOWN ON CPC DROUGHT MONITOR...EXPECT FUEL
   CONDITIONS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS VALLEYS WHERE SNOWPACK IS NOT
   A FACTOR.
   
   MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE UNDERCUTTING WIND POTENTIAL...WITH
   NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
   EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FROPA. HOWEVER...GRADIENT
   WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS
   OF 8000 TO 9000 FT WILL ALLOW A GUSTY WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY LOW
   LEVEL JET TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
   EXPECTED IN NARROW VALLEYS AND CANYONS THAT TYPICALLY PROVIDE
   CHANNELING EFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
   WHERE FINE FUELS REMAIN DRY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN AZ...SWRN NM......
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CRITICALLY LOW RHS...WIND
   
   A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN
   NV...NRN AZ AND NM...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
   SAG SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUSTAINED 
   SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES AND PREVAILING
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO
   THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY IN NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS.
   MIXING HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 1000 FEET WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
   MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MPE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS AND CPC DROUGHT
   MONITOR SHOW THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY.
   ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
   PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...COOLING TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE
   PASSAGE MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE DURATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RHS.
   
   ...SWRN TX...
   A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN
   NV...NRN AZ AND NM...AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
   SAG SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT TODAY. A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW OF
   CRITICALLY LOW RHS AND MARGINAL WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
   BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES AND TEMPERATURES COOL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
   SHIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...BECOMING MORE
   NORTHERLY BY MID AFTERNOON AND GUSTING NEAR THE FRONT. EXPECTATION
   OF SHORT DURATIONS WILL LIMIT DELINEATION OF A CRITICAL AREA. 
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   
   DESPITE RECENT COLD FROPA...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
   60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE DRIEST
   LOCATIONS. GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT REMAIN NNWLY FOR LONG AS
   THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE NORTHEAST...AND A RETURN TO MORE WSWLY
   WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT DRYING AND DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RHS.
   GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LAX AS THE LOW EXITS.
   ADDITIONALLY...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MOIST
   FUEL CONDITIONS WILL HINDER WIDESPREAD FIRE POTENTIAL.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/05/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050838
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CST WED MAR 05 2008
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
   AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
   REGION THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND THROUGH
   SOUTHERN TX...NM...AND AZ. IN SOUTH FLORIDA...A STALLED FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE WEST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT...WITH COOL AND
   MOIST CONDITIONS PREVAILING. IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
   AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
   SOUTHWEST TX WILL LEAD TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.
   
   ...SWRN TX...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...DEVELOPING A
   LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN MEXICO AHEAD OF IT. AN INCREASING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
   BE RELATIVELY COOL FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS DAYS FROPA...WITH RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. 
   
   ...SRN CA...SRN AZ...SWRN NM...
   DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS AS HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST FOLLOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   PASSAGE. AS THIS SHORT WAVE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD...EXPECT A
   RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS
   ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
   REMAIN LOW...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
   AT THIS TIME. 
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
   AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS OF 25
   TO 35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS AN APPROACHING RAPIDLY
   DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE
   SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
   GULF. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
   LIMIT DELINEATION OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/05/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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