Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070723
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CST FRI MAR 07 2008
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GOMEX WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...THEN RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WIDESPREAD INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE COAST PRODUCING SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
IN THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST WITH A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA/AZ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TX...DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE
WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE GULF LOW
SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...LOW RH...ONGOING
DROUGHT
...SRN/SWRN TX...
GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED ACROSS
SOUTHERN TX THIS MORNING WITH EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH
NEAR THE COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ONCE THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECT DECREASING TREND IN WINDS OVER SRN AND SWRN
TX.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO CRITICAL AREA...WHILE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING TREND
AS WELL. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING
WITH MINIMUM READINGS IN THE TEENS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. DESPITE OVERALL DECREASING GRADIENT
WINDS...GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS MIXING HEIGHTS RANGING
NEAR 7500 TO 10500 FEET ALLOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO REACH THE
SURFACE. EXPECT THE LARGEST THREAT TO BE ACROSS SRN TX WHERE THE
WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST.
DESPITE YESTERDAYS SYSTEM...MPE ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE PRECIPITATION
HAS FALLEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WITH EXPECTATION OF
WINDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
JUST NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND FAR WEST
TEXAS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT FIRE IGNITION
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT WILL STILL EXIST.
...SRN CA/AZ/NM...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A
PREDOMINANT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS TODAY. DESPITE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND FORECAST
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
AT THIS TIME.
..HURLBUT.. 03/07/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070838
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CST FRI MAR 07 2008
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOL
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST.
MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND STRONG JET STREAM WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIVE SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL CREATE
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. DRY AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESIGNATION.
...SRN NV/CA AND SWRN AZ...
AN UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
QUICKLY DRIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL
DIG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...CREATING INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...AN INCREASING
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RELATIVELY STAGNANT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INCREASE A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY JET ACROSS SRN NV/CA AND SWRN AZ. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND INTO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
FORECAST PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT RUNS SHOW FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR A CRITICAL FIRE
AREA...RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL LIMIT DESIGNATION ATTM.
FURTHERMORE...STRONGEST WIND CORE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AFTER
MAXIMUM HEATING...WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN SLOW RECOVERY
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE AREA ISSUANCE
TOMORROW.
...SRN AZ/NM...
AN UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
QUICKLY DRIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL
DIG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...CREATING INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS
AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON.
THE PREDOMINANT WINDS ACROSS SRN AZ AND NM WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH ADIABATIC WARMING/DRYING EXPECTED TO LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EVENING.
CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS SHOW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONAL DATA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSER TO EVENT TIME
FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE IF THE LOW DEVELOPS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST AND STRONGER WINDS APPEAR TO BE PROBABLE.
...SRN/SWRN TX...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH
WILL QUICKLY DRIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER JET
WILL DIG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...CREATING INTENSE HEIGHT
FALLS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...AN
INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS.
CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND SWRN TX...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VALUES NEAR THE COAST.
RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
DESIGNATION TODAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE TOMORROW AS MORE OBSERVATIONAL DATA CAN BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.
...SERN STATES...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL FROPA...DRY BREEZY TO
WINDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP
INTO THE 20S AND 30S. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SRN AL...AND SRN GA HAVE
RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WITH THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAYS
SYSTEM. GREATEST FIRE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS AREAS TO THE
NORTH WHERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST.
..HURLBUT.. 03/07/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...