Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070723
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 AM CST FRI MAR 07 2008
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH
   CENTRAL GOMEX WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   STATES...THEN RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.
   WIDESPREAD INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
   AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. 
   
   HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
   A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
   INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
   
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
   THE COAST PRODUCING SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. 
   
   IN THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE COAST WITH A
   LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA/AZ. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   MEANWHILE IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TX...DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE
   WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE GULF LOW
   SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...LOW RH...ONGOING
   DROUGHT
   
   ...SRN/SWRN TX...
   GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
   THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED ACROSS
   SOUTHERN TX THIS MORNING WITH EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
   SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH
   NEAR THE COAST. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ONCE THE LOW MOVES
   NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECT DECREASING TREND IN WINDS OVER SRN AND SWRN
   TX. 
   
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATH OF DRIER AIR MOVING
   INTO CRITICAL AREA...WHILE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING TREND
   AS WELL. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING
   WITH MINIMUM READINGS IN THE TEENS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS
   CLOSER TO THE COAST. DESPITE OVERALL DECREASING GRADIENT
   WINDS...GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS MIXING HEIGHTS RANGING
   NEAR 7500 TO 10500 FEET ALLOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO REACH THE
   SURFACE. EXPECT THE LARGEST THREAT TO BE ACROSS SRN TX WHERE THE
   WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST. 
   
   DESPITE YESTERDAYS SYSTEM...MPE ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE PRECIPITATION
   HAS FALLEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WITH EXPECTATION OF
   WINDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND LOW RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. 
   
   JUST NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND FAR WEST
   TEXAS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT FIRE IGNITION
   POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT WILL STILL EXIST.
   
   ...SRN CA/AZ/NM...
   HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A
   PREDOMINANT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
   AREAS TODAY. DESPITE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND FORECAST
   AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
   LOWER VALLEYS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
   AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/07/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070838
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CST FRI MAR 07 2008
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
   NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OVER THE
   ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOL
   AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST.
   
   MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND STRONG JET STREAM WILL
   MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIVE SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL CREATE
   SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
   STATES. DRY AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
   BRING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESIGNATION.
   
   ...SRN NV/CA AND SWRN AZ...
   AN UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
   QUICKLY DRIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL
   DIG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...CREATING INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS
   AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
   LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...AN INCREASING
   GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RELATIVELY STAGNANT AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INCREASE A LOW LEVEL
   NORTHERLY JET ACROSS SRN NV/CA AND SWRN AZ. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND INTO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
   
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
   AFTERNOON...AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND GENERAL DRY CONDITIONS
   WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
   FORECAST PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LOWER
   VALLEYS.
   
   ALTHOUGH CURRENT RUNS SHOW FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR A CRITICAL FIRE
   AREA...RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL LIMIT DESIGNATION ATTM.
   FURTHERMORE...STRONGEST WIND CORE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AFTER
   MAXIMUM HEATING...WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN SLOW RECOVERY
   OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE AREA ISSUANCE
   TOMORROW.
   
   ...SRN AZ/NM...
   AN UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
   QUICKLY DRIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL
   DIG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...CREATING INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS
   AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   THE PREDOMINANT WINDS ACROSS SRN AZ AND NM WILL BE WEST TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH ADIABATIC WARMING/DRYING EXPECTED TO LOWER
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING AND
   THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS SHOW WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
   AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONAL DATA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSER TO EVENT TIME
   FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE IF THE LOW DEVELOPS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
   FORECAST AND STRONGER WINDS APPEAR TO BE PROBABLE.
   
   ...SRN/SWRN TX...
   AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH
   WILL QUICKLY DRIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER JET
   WILL DIG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...CREATING INTENSE HEIGHT
   FALLS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...AN
   INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTH TO
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS.
   
   CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
   THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND SWRN TX...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
   VALUES NEAR THE COAST.
   
   RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
   DESIGNATION TODAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE ISSUANCE TOMORROW AS MORE OBSERVATIONAL DATA CAN BE
   INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL FROPA...DRY BREEZY TO
   WINDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP
   INTO THE 20S AND 30S. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS...MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SRN AL...AND SRN GA HAVE
   RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH
   SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES EXPECTED WITH THIS FRIDAY/SATURDAYS
   SYSTEM. GREATEST FIRE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS AREAS TO THE
   NORTH WHERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/07/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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