Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120716
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2008
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
   MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE
   FL PENINSULA.  A MORE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
   NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TO THE
   SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO MOVE
   FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE
   END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF
   THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTH/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WITH
   SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE DURING THE LATER HALF
   OF THE PERIOD.  WARM TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
   PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL DECREASE TO THE UPPER
   SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  A TIGHTENING SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW. 
   HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND
   SPEEDS /15 TO 20 MPH/...RESULTING IN BORDERLINE CRITICAL CRITERIA. 
   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCALIZED AREAS MAY EXCEED 20 MPH SUSTAINED
   WINDS FOR A TEMPORARY PERIOD/S/...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM DELINEATING
   A SUBSTANTIALLY SIZED THREAT AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/12/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120805
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2008
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NM...SE AZ...AND PARTS OF SW
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.  MEANWHILE...A ZONAL FLOW
   REGIME OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL PROMOTE RAPID EWD MOVEMENT OF A
   MID-UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY
   THE END OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NM...SE AZ...AND PARTS OF SW
   TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...DEVELOPING LONG
   TERM DRYNESS
   
   PREVIOUS CONCERNS OVER WHETHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WOULD
   BE MET ON THURSDAY /DAY 2/...ARE BEING LESSENED AS FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE EVIDENT BY THE RECENT MODEL
   OUTPUT.  IT IS BECOMING QUITE APPARENT THAT VERY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
   REGION.  A RECENT TREND OF INCREASING SUSTAINED WIND MAGNITUDE
   ACROSS THE AREA IS BEING DEPICTED IN MODEL PROGNOSTICS/FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS.  THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO CLARITY REGARDING THE TRANSLATION
   OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING THE RISK AREA.  DESPITE
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING BORDERLINE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS /AOA
   20 MPH/...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE
   MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO SURFACE WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH.
    ATTM...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS CENTERED ON THE SIZE OF THE CRITICAL
   RISK AREA.
   
   ...IMMEDIATE AREAS SURROUNDING CRITICAL RISK /MAINLY PARTS OF WRN TX
   AND SE NM/...
   
   VERY LOW RH IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE TEMPERED
   SOMEWHAT FURTHER E AND NE OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BECAUSE OF EXPECTED
   LOWER SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS.  MORE SPECIFICALLY...DUE TO GREATER
   DISTANCE OF THE APPROACHING JET STREAK...CONDITIONS WILL BE
   BORDERLINE CRITICAL.  THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
   RELATIVELY LOWER IN AREAS FARTHER EAST AND NE OF THE CRITICAL THREAT
   AREA.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAIN ATTM EXACTLY WHERE THESE BORDERLINE
   CONDITIONS WILL ALIGN.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/12/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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