Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 130656
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...SRN HALF OF NM...PARTS OF
SWRN AND W TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. FARTHER WEST...A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL ENABLE A MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK TO QUICKLY MOVE SE FROM THE NRN CA COAST TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SEWD AND INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ...SRN HALF OF NM...PARTS OF
SWRN AND W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...LONG TERM DRYNESS
UPPER AIR RAOBS NEAR THE W COAST AT 13/00UTC CONFIRMED THE APPROACH
OF A MID TO HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. THIS HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD WITHIN A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME. LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING
FLOW FROM TOP TO BOTTOM ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE 60S NW TO LOW 80S SE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES COUPLED
WITH VERY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMPT A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. THIS IN TURN WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 TO 45 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTS...MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS STRONG SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP /20 TO 30
MPH/. ATTM...EXPECTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO APPROACH MORE
BORDERLINE CRITERIA /AOA 20 MPH/ TOWARDS THE SE PART OF THE CRITICAL
AREA.
..SMITH.. 03/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 130850
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2008
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE THIRD OF NM...SWRN
AND W TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...TX PANHANDLE...SW
OK...CENTRAL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN PART OF THE
CONUS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE SURGING EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN
OK...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE LATER HALF
OF FRIDAY /DAY 2. GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
SITUATION OF CURED FUELS...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SE NM...SWRN AND W TX.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE THIRD OF NM...SWRN AND
W TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: EXTREME WINDS...VERY LOW RH...HIGH KBDI
PATTERN RECOGNITION...VERY DRY EXISTING CONDITIONS...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY /DAY 2/ ACROSS LARGE PARTS OF SE NM...SWRN AND W TX. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION
ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING WITH IT VERY STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.
A POTENT COMBINATION OF FIRE WEATHER INGREDIENTS THAT
INCLUDE...VERY LOW RH...VERY STRONG TO EXTREME SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS...AND LONG TERM
DRYNESS WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOMING EXTREME IN THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES...COUPLED WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL PROMPT
RH VALUES TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
PART OF FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THIS IN TURN
WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 TO 60 MPH. IN
ADDITION TO THE GUSTS...MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS VERY STRONG SUSTAINED
WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP /25 TO 40 MPH/. THESE CONDITIONS CAN
UNDOUBTEDLY PROMOTE RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND VERY FAST WIND-DRIVEN
WILDFIRES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ...TX PANHANDLE...SW
OK...CENTRAL TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RH...LONG TERM
DRYNESS
LESS EXTREME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE SRN PLAINS AND SW U.S. DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SET THE BACKGROUND FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETUP. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...THEREBY CAUSING THE WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM NEAR WLY TO A MORE NLY COMPONENT WITH SOME RH
RECOVERY. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF TX
AND OK WITH RAPID DRYING OCCURRING CONCURRENTLY WITH VERY STRONG WLY
WINDS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE PREVALENT AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THIS IN TURN WILL SUPPORT DEEP
MIXING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 TO 40 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE
GUSTS...MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP /20 TO 30 MPH/. DUE TO CONFLICTING SCENARIOS OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NRN EXTENT
OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
...COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SW AZ...
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW CAN PENETRATE
TO THE SURFACE AND INCREASE BORDERLINE SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLD /20
MPH/. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL OCCUR AND
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL
WIND MAGNITUDE...ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION...BUT MAY IN THE
NEXT UPDATE IF CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE.
..SMITH.. 03/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...