Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130656
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2008
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...SRN HALF OF NM...PARTS OF
   SWRN AND W TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.  FARTHER WEST...A ZONAL FLOW
   PATTERN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL ENABLE A MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
   STREAK TO QUICKLY MOVE SE FROM THE NRN CA COAST TO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
   DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SEWD AND INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ...SRN HALF OF NM...PARTS OF
   SWRN AND W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH...STRONG WINDS...LONG TERM DRYNESS
   
   UPPER AIR RAOBS NEAR THE W COAST AT 13/00UTC CONFIRMED THE APPROACH
   OF A MID TO HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM NOSING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
   REGION.  THIS HIGH MOMENTUM FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD WITHIN A
   ZONAL FLOW REGIME.  LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING
   FLOW FROM TOP TO BOTTOM ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION.  MOSTLY SUNNY
   SKIES WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS THE
   REGION INTO THE 60S NW TO LOW 80S SE.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES COUPLED
   WITH VERY LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
   DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMPT A STRENGTHENING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.  AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND
   STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING.  THIS IN TURN WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND THE DOWNWARD
   TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS
   APPROACHING 35 TO 45 MPH.  IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTS...MODEL OUTPUT
   SUGGESTS STRONG SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP /20 TO 30
   MPH/.  ATTM...EXPECTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO APPROACH MORE
   BORDERLINE CRITERIA /AOA 20 MPH/ TOWARDS THE SE PART OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/13/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130850
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2008
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE THIRD OF NM...SWRN
   AND W TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...TX PANHANDLE...SW
   OK...CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE SWRN PART OF THE
   CONUS.  A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
   WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE SURGING EWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN
   OK...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX DURING THE PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE LATER HALF
   OF FRIDAY /DAY 2.  GIVEN SYNOPTIC SETUP AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
   SITUATION OF CURED FUELS...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
   LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SE NM...SWRN AND W TX.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE THIRD OF NM...SWRN AND
   W TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: EXTREME WINDS...VERY LOW RH...HIGH KBDI
   
   PATTERN RECOGNITION...VERY DRY EXISTING CONDITIONS...AND MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ON FRIDAY /DAY 2/ ACROSS LARGE PARTS OF SE NM...SWRN AND W TX.  A
   STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION
   ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING WITH IT VERY STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS.
    A POTENT COMBINATION OF FIRE WEATHER INGREDIENTS THAT
   INCLUDE...VERY LOW RH...VERY STRONG TO EXTREME SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS...AND LONG TERM
   DRYNESS WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOMING EXTREME IN THE
   HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  UNSEASONABLY WARM AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH
   TEMPERATURES...COUPLED WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL PROMPT
   RH VALUES TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
   PART OF FRIDAY.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.  THIS IN TURN
   WILL SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 45 TO 60 MPH.  IN
   ADDITION TO THE GUSTS...MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS VERY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP /25 TO 40 MPH/.  THESE CONDITIONS CAN
   UNDOUBTEDLY PROMOTE RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND VERY FAST WIND-DRIVEN
   WILDFIRES LEADING TO AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SE AZ...TX PANHANDLE...SW
   OK...CENTRAL TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RH...LONG TERM
   DRYNESS
   
   LESS EXTREME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
   THE SRN PLAINS AND SW U.S.  DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   SET THE BACKGROUND FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETUP.  A COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...THEREBY CAUSING THE WINDS
   TO SHIFT FROM NEAR WLY TO A MORE NLY COMPONENT WITH SOME RH
   RECOVERY.  MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF TX
   AND OK WITH RAPID DRYING OCCURRING CONCURRENTLY WITH VERY STRONG WLY
   WINDS.  WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE PREVALENT AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. 
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.  THIS IN TURN WILL SUPPORT DEEP
   MIXING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE
   SURFACE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 TO 40 MPH.  IN ADDITION TO THE
   GUSTS...MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE
   WINDS WILL DEVELOP /20 TO 30 MPH/.  DUE TO CONFLICTING SCENARIOS OF
   THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NRN EXTENT
   OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SW AZ...
   
   VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THE DEVELOPING
   SYSTEM IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THERE IS
   STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW CAN PENETRATE
   TO THE SURFACE AND INCREASE BORDERLINE SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLD /20
   MPH/.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL OCCUR AND
   RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
   TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL
   WIND MAGNITUDE...ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS REGION...BUT MAY IN THE
   NEXT UPDATE IF CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/13/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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