Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160852
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR W TX...FAR S-CNTRL
   NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NM...WRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED INVOF THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. 
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT
   SLOWLY EWD...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE FOUR
   CORNERS AND NRN GULF OF CA BY EARLY MON. AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL
   SPEED MAX /500 MB WINDS AROUND 100 MPH/...WILL SPREAD INTO NM/SERN
   AZ BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LEE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED
   OVER NERN NM WITH A DRY LINE ARCING SWD ACROSS WRN TX BY EARLY
   EVENING.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR W TX...FAR S-CNTRL
   NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST
   SEVERAL HOURS /AS DEPICTED IN THE WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER/...AND
   WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. 
   AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 70S...GFS/ETAKF MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 10000-13000 FT
   AGL...SUPPORTING DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF INTENSE FLOW ALOFT. SUSTAINED
   SURFACE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60
   MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS /CURRENT SURFACE DEW
   POINTS FROM 5 TO 15 DEG F/...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND
   6 TO 10 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL LEAD
   TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODERATE WIND
   SPEEDS CONTINUING...RH RECOVERY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY POOR INTO EARLY
   MORNING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NM...WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
   
   STRONG SWLY WINDS WILL BE PERVASIVE TO THE W OF A SHARP DRY LINE
   EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR TCC TO MAF THROUGH THE BIG BEND
   AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
   SLIGHTLY LESS THAN IN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...AND RH VALUES
   SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. STILL...A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   APPEARS PROBABLE...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS GENERALLY REACHING
   25 TO 35 MPH AND RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/16/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160945
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   CONUS...WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
   NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM
   RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
   BECOME CENTERED INVOF OK PANHANDLE BY MON EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE DRY LINE DRAPED SWD THROUGH THE TX BIG
   COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
   
   ...E-CNTRL NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...
   NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RH...AND AT LEAST MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
   SWLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE PUSHING
   EWD. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
   DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...THEY DIFFER WITH THE
   OVERALL RATE AT WHICH THIS WILL OCCUR. EVEN WITH DEEP VERTICAL
   MIXING...A SUBSTANTIAL DURATION OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20
   MPH IS UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
   TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD RESULT IN LESS THAN
   OPTIMALLY DRIED FUELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/16/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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