Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160852
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR W TX...FAR S-CNTRL
NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NM...WRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED INVOF THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY.
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD...BECOMING CENTERED FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AND NRN GULF OF CA BY EARLY MON. AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX /500 MB WINDS AROUND 100 MPH/...WILL SPREAD INTO NM/SERN
AZ BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LEE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER NERN NM WITH A DRY LINE ARCING SWD ACROSS WRN TX BY EARLY
EVENING.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR W TX...FAR S-CNTRL
NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS /AS DEPICTED IN THE WHITE SANDS NM PROFILER/...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 70S...GFS/ETAKF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 10000-13000 FT
AGL...SUPPORTING DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF INTENSE FLOW ALOFT. SUSTAINED
SURFACE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS /CURRENT SURFACE DEW
POINTS FROM 5 TO 15 DEG F/...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND
6 TO 10 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL LEAD
TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODERATE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUING...RH RECOVERY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY POOR INTO EARLY
MORNING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF NM...WRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / LONG-TERM DRYNESS
STRONG SWLY WINDS WILL BE PERVASIVE TO THE W OF A SHARP DRY LINE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR TCC TO MAF THROUGH THE BIG BEND
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN IN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...AND RH VALUES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. STILL...A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT
APPEARS PROBABLE...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS GENERALLY REACHING
25 TO 35 MPH AND RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 8 TO 15 PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 03/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160945
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD FROM THE
NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
BECOME CENTERED INVOF OK PANHANDLE BY MON EVENING...WITH A WEAKENING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE DRY LINE DRAPED SWD THROUGH THE TX BIG
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
...E-CNTRL NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RH...AND AT LEAST MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
SWLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE PUSHING
EWD. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...THEY DIFFER WITH THE
OVERALL RATE AT WHICH THIS WILL OCCUR. EVEN WITH DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING...A SUBSTANTIAL DURATION OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20
MPH IS UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING COULD RESULT IN LESS THAN
OPTIMALLY DRIED FUELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
..GRAMS.. 03/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...