Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170837
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS
   BAJA CA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO
   BY EARLY TUE. A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH IN THE N-CNTRL
   CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NEWD FROM
   SERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT/DRY LINE WILL ARC SWD FROM THE CYCLONE...ACROSS THE TX LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN NM INTO THE S PLAINS/SWRN PANHANDLE OF
   TX...
   A SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED CRITICAL THREAT MAY BE REALIZED THIS
   AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED INVOF SERN TX
   PANHANDLE. WITH JUST NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED /AROUND THE
   MIDDLE 60S/...RH VALUES SHOULD ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /NEAR 15
   PERCENT/ BASED ON UPSTREAM DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. MODEL GUIDANCE
   FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
   THE DAY. STILL WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXING WILL
   LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AT
   PEAK HEATING.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/17/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170959
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DEEP S TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO WILL
   ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND REACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   BY WED MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM CNTRL TX
   TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS
   SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL KINEMATIC
   FIELDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD
   TO A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER DEEP S TX.
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / VERY HIGH KBDI
   
   EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON FOR A
   SMALL PORTION OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE
   FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY STRONG LOWER-LEVEL WLYS /AROUND
   50 MPH AT 850 MB/ WILL COMMENCE AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MID-LATE
   TUE MORNING. WITH DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...ENHANCED BY
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH
   APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
   80S WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 6 TO 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - DEEP S TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH KBDI
   
   RATHER STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP S TX
   TUE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA.
   HOWEVER...POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY TUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH
   MORE NRN/ERN EXTENT. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER
   80S...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 8 TO 20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF SUFFICIENT WETTING
   RAINS DO NOT DEVELOP...AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY COULD POTENTIALLY
   OCCUR.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/17/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home