Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170837
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS
BAJA CA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD REACHING THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO
BY EARLY TUE. A LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH IN THE N-CNTRL
CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NEWD FROM
SERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE WILL ARC SWD FROM THE CYCLONE...ACROSS THE TX LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN NM INTO THE S PLAINS/SWRN PANHANDLE OF
TX...
A SHORT DURATION/LOCALIZED CRITICAL THREAT MAY BE REALIZED THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED INVOF SERN TX
PANHANDLE. WITH JUST NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED /AROUND THE
MIDDLE 60S/...RH VALUES SHOULD ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /NEAR 15
PERCENT/ BASED ON UPSTREAM DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS. MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. STILL WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXING WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AT
PEAK HEATING.
..GRAMS.. 03/17/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170959
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DEEP S TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO WILL
ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND REACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BY WED MORNING. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM CNTRL TX
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL KINEMATIC
FIELDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD
TO A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER DEEP S TX.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH / VERY HIGH KBDI
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON FOR A
SMALL PORTION OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY STRONG LOWER-LEVEL WLYS /AROUND
50 MPH AT 850 MB/ WILL COMMENCE AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MID-LATE
TUE MORNING. WITH DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...ENHANCED BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 6 TO 10 PERCENT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - DEEP S TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / VERY HIGH KBDI
RATHER STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP S TX
TUE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA.
HOWEVER...POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY TUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH
MORE NRN/ERN EXTENT. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 8 TO 20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF SUFFICIENT WETTING
RAINS DO NOT DEVELOP...AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY COULD POTENTIALLY
OCCUR.
..GRAMS.. 03/17/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...