Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190706
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD OUT OF THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF OF
   MEXICO BY LATE TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
   HUMIDITY CREATING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR DEEP S TX.
   
   ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER SD WITH A SURFACE
   TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO NEBRASKA AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
   SHORTWAVE MOVES SEWD. GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERING RH WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   MUCH OF WRN NEB AND SD AS A RESULT.  FARTHER W...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
   WILL HELP CREATE WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SWRN STATES
   BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY
   
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST FOR
   MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS OF
   15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON. TEMPERATURES WILL
   WARM INTO 70S TO LOWER 80S...BRINGING RH LEVELS DOWN INTO THE TEENS
   NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FARTHER E TOWARD THE
   MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH WLY WINDS OF
   20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND IT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HEATING AND
   MIXING WILL ALSO DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE BY
   AFTERNOON...THUS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 55-60 F.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/19/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190710
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...W TX...NWRN OK...SWRN
   KS...FAR SERN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
   THE NRN PLAINS THU...WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER KS AND SURFACE
   TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN NM. VERY STRONG SLY WINDS WILL
   MATERIALIZE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH CRITICAL FIRE
   CONDITIONS FOR THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. TO THE E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   SETTLE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES
   EWD OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. LOWERING RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WITH A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM...W TX...NWRN OK...SWRN
   KS...FAR SERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   A VERY DRY AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND BY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODIFY QUICKLY
   WITH STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CRITICAL AREA WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FROM ERN NM ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. MIN
   RH WILL BE QUITE LOW...AVERAGING 10-15 PERCENT. THE FIRE THREAT MAY
   APPROACH EXTREME LEVELS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA IS BEING MODULATED BY RECENT
   PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS BY MARGINAL RH VALUES.
   
   ...AZ INTO WRN NM...
   MODERATE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH A DRY AIR
   MASS IN PLACE TO CREATE A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT BY AFTERNOON. WLY
   WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON FROM NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM...BUT
   TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S. FARTHER S...WARMER
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL CREATE LOW RH IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS TO TEENS FROM SERN AZ INTO SWRN NM...HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA.
   
   ...MUCH OF TX INTO OK...
   A DEEPENING LOW OVER KS WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
   STRONG WINDS OVER ALL OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY.
   SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS CNTRL
   TX...INCREASING TO 20-40 MPH FARTHER N INTO OK AND SRN KS. THE
   EFFECTS OF RECENT PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH MARGINALLY LOW MIN RH
   VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT
   DURING THE DAY.
   
   ...SERN STATES FROM NRN FL INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE WED NIGHT COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   SETTLE INTO THE SERN U.S. BRINGING VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO A LARGE
   PART OF THE SERN CONUS. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
   TEENS TO 20S WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...NLY WINDS
   OF 10-15 MPH WILL OCCUR FROM FL INTO GA...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OF
   15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO VA. THE MAIN
   MITIGATING FACTOR TO A DAY 2 CRITICAL AREA WILL BE HOW MUCH
   PRECIPITATION FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. KBDI
   VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WERE ALREADY QUITE LOW...SUGGESTING A
   MINIMAL THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRES ALTHOUGH THE LOW RH COULD
   YIELD NEW STARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/19/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home