Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230635
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE IN
THE EAST. DRY N TO NWLY FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SWD TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN FL TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SWD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND.
IN TX...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SWD THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF TX FOLLOWING THE FRONT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DOMINANT. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.
...SERN STATES...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN
SC...SRN GA...AND EXTENDING ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES. OBSERVATIONAL DATA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH 20 DEGREE OR MORE DIFFERENCE IN DEW POINTS
ON EITHER SIDE. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SWD TODAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN BEHIND. ADDITIONALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SWD
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AND INITIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL
PENINSULA WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S AND LOWER
30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH ATTM EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
..HURLBUT.. 03/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230811
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN GA/N AND CENTRAL FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN INVOF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER
MUCH OF THE WEST...ALTHOUGH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN GA/N AND CENTRAL FL...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WIND/DEVELOPING DROUGHT
ORIENTATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUED DRY NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS LOWER
PORTIONS OF GA/AL AND NRN FL...WHILE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE DRIEST AREAS...WHILE
MID 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR AS CENTRAL FL...MAINLY
CONFINED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INCREASING FLOW THROUGH ALL LEVELS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF NEAR 20 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLINED AREA...WHILE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY. DRY CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPING DROUGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE DANGER. DESPITE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL FL FROM STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA IMMEDIATELY TO THE N AND W...COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF FIRE IGNITION POTENTIAL AND
CRITICALLY LOW RHS. HOWEVER...CRITICAL OUTLINE AREA MAY BE ADJUSTED
IN TOMORROWS FORECAST SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS CHANGE.
...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDING TOWARDS INTENSIFYING A TROUGH ON THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE DRY SWLY FLOW IN WRN NEB...WRN
KS/OK...NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN THIS REGIME...WITH DEEP MIXING
ALLOWING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND AREAL
EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS
COLOCATED WITH THE DRIEST AIR APPEAR LIKELY FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TX
UP THROUGH WRN OK/KS. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT...A CRITICAL AREA MAY
NEED TO BE OUTLINED IN TOMORROWS DAY 1 FORECAST WHEN MORE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA CAN BE INCORPORATED.
..HURLBUT.. 03/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...