Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 230635 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE IN THE EAST. DRY N TO NWLY FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SWD TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN FL TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SWD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND. IN TX...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SWD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF TX FOLLOWING THE FRONT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT. ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ...SERN STATES... EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN SC...SRN GA...AND EXTENDING ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. OBSERVATIONAL DATA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH 20 DEGREE OR MORE DIFFERENCE IN DEW POINTS ON EITHER SIDE. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SWD TODAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN BEHIND. ADDITIONALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN FL WILL FINALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SWD AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. RAINFALL AND INITIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S AND LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH ATTM EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ..HURLBUT.. 03/23/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 230811 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0311 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SRN GA/N AND CENTRAL FL... ...SYNOPSIS... A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN INVOF THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE WEST...ALTHOUGH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - EXTREME SRN GA/N AND CENTRAL FL... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WIND/DEVELOPING DROUGHT ORIENTATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED DRY NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS LOWER PORTIONS OF GA/AL AND NRN FL...WHILE LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE DRIEST AREAS...WHILE MID 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR AS CENTRAL FL...MAINLY CONFINED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING FLOW THROUGH ALL LEVELS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLINED AREA...WHILE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY. DRY CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPING DROUGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE DANGER. DESPITE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL FL FROM STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER. SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA IMMEDIATELY TO THE N AND W...COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF FIRE IGNITION POTENTIAL AND CRITICALLY LOW RHS. HOWEVER...CRITICAL OUTLINE AREA MAY BE ADJUSTED IN TOMORROWS FORECAST SHOULD CURRENT TRENDS CHANGE. ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDING TOWARDS INTENSIFYING A TROUGH ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE DRY SWLY FLOW IN WRN NEB...WRN KS/OK...NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN THIS REGIME...WITH DEEP MIXING ALLOWING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS COLOCATED WITH THE DRIEST AIR APPEAR LIKELY FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TX UP THROUGH WRN OK/KS. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT...A CRITICAL AREA MAY NEED TO BE OUTLINED IN TOMORROWS DAY 1 FORECAST WHEN MORE OBSERVATIONAL DATA CAN BE INCORPORATED. ..HURLBUT.. 03/23/2008 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...