Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240718
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND NRN FL...SRN GA/AL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE
ERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE WEST...ALTHOUGH
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SWD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND NRN FL...SRN GA/AL...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WIND/LOW RH/DEVELOPING DROUGHT
ORIENTATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARDS AN EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED DRY NWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS SRN GA/AL AND NRN FL...WHILE LOWER 70S WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE DRIEST
AREAS...WHILE MID 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR AS
CENTRAL FL...MAINLY CONFINED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
INCREASING FLOW THROUGH ALL LEVELS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
NEAR THE OUTLINED AREAS...AND AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WHILE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY. DRY CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPING DROUGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE DANGER. DESPITE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL FL FROM STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY SHOULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.
ALTHOUGH LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST...THE
STRONGEST WIND CORE AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS THE OUTLINED AREA. NONETHELESS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND SWD TROUGH THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES INTO WRN KS/OK. ANALYSIS LINES UP WELL
WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOW THAT THE LEE TROUGH WILL
INTENSIFY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AS A ZONAL UPPER JET APPROACHES
FROM THE PACIFIC NW. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN HIGH PLAINS TO SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...DRY SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN
NEB...WRN KS/OK...NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN THIS REGIME...WITH DEEP
MIXING ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S ACROSS THESE AREAS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE JUXTAPOSITION OF
WINDS WITH THE LOWEST RH CORE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS....MAINLY FROM MINNESOTA SSWWD THROUGH
ERN NEB/KS/OK AND N CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...IN THIS AREA GRADUALLY
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR OVERLAP WILL BE ACROSS WRN KS...THE PANHANDLE
OF OK...NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
A FAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS OVERLAP WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL
DESIGNATION.
..HURLBUT.. 03/24/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240821
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/WRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SHIFT SEWD TOWARDS THE GA/SC COAST AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE TAIL END OF THIS
LOW...A SECOND LEE SIDE LOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER SWRN KS/WRN OK AS
ZONAL FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM/WRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WINDS/PERSISTENT DRYNESS
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A JET AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND LEE
SIDE LOW NEAR SWRN KS/WRN OK FROM THE TAIL END OF MONDAYS LEE
TROUGH. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES...ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
ONLY APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON THE VERY WRN PERIPHERY OF THESE
STRONGER WINDS THROUGH WRN TX.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE WITH HEATING.
GIVEN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND DROUGHT...AN
ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...DESPITE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OUTLINED AREAS...NEWER MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DOWNWARD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAVORED CANYONS AND
PASSES.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED CRITICAL
AREA...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE REDUCED TO A SEE TEXT BY TOMORROW
SHOULD OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA SHOW THAT WINDS WILL NOT MEET
CRITERIA.
...SERN STATES...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARDS THE GA/SC COAST AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE TO
THE N AND ONE TO THE W...APPROACH. IN MID TO UPPER LEVELS...THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNING
TO THE EAST.
CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND PWAT DISPLAYS SHOW VERY MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WRN GULF THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GIVEN THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
ON THE EAST SHORES AND THE PANHANDLE GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
..HURLBUT.. 03/24/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...