Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240718
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND NRN FL...SRN GA/AL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
   TO DOMINATE THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE
   ERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPI VALLEY.
   
   
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE WEST...ALTHOUGH
   A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   SWD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND NRN FL...SRN GA/AL...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WIND/LOW RH/DEVELOPING DROUGHT
   
   ORIENTATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A BROAD
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   TOWARDS AN EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED DRY NWLY FLOW
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL
   WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS SRN GA/AL AND NRN FL...WHILE LOWER 70S WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
   FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN THE DRIEST
   AREAS...WHILE MID 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR AS
   CENTRAL FL...MAINLY CONFINED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
   
   INCREASING FLOW THROUGH ALL LEVELS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
   NEAR THE OUTLINED AREAS...AND AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WHILE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
   LIKELY. DRY CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPING DROUGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   FIRE DANGER. DESPITE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL FL FROM STALLED FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
   INTO MONDAY SHOULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER.
   
   ALTHOUGH LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE MET ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST...THE
   STRONGEST WIND CORE AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   ACROSS THE OUTLINED AREA. NONETHELESS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CAN
   BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
   EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND SWD TROUGH THE
   LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES INTO WRN KS/OK. ANALYSIS LINES UP WELL
   WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOW THAT THE LEE TROUGH WILL
   INTENSIFY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AS A ZONAL UPPER JET APPROACHES
   FROM THE PACIFIC NW. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN HIGH PLAINS TO SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...DRY SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS WRN
   NEB...WRN KS/OK...NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX. TEMPERATURES
   WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN THIS REGIME...WITH DEEP
   MIXING ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
   20S ACROSS THESE AREAS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE JUXTAPOSITION OF
   WINDS WITH THE LOWEST RH CORE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
   THE ERN PARTS OF THE PLAINS....MAINLY FROM MINNESOTA SSWWD THROUGH
   ERN NEB/KS/OK AND N CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...IN THIS AREA GRADUALLY
   INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CRITICALLY LOW
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
   
   MOST LIKELY AREA FOR OVERLAP WILL BE ACROSS WRN KS...THE PANHANDLE
   OF OK...NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
   A FAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS OVERLAP WILL LIMIT A CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/24/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240821
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/WRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
   SHIFT SEWD TOWARDS THE GA/SC COAST AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES ACROSS
   THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE TAIL END OF THIS
   LOW...A SECOND LEE SIDE LOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER SWRN KS/WRN OK AS
   ZONAL FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA
   COAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM/WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WINDS/PERSISTENT DRYNESS
   
   INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A JET AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND LEE
   SIDE LOW NEAR SWRN KS/WRN OK FROM THE TAIL END OF MONDAYS LEE
   TROUGH. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH
   THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST AS THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES...ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
   ONLY APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON THE VERY WRN PERIPHERY OF THESE
   STRONGER WINDS THROUGH WRN TX. 
   
   WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
   AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE WITH HEATING. 
   
   GIVEN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND DROUGHT...AN
   ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...DESPITE RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE OUTLINED AREAS...NEWER MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
   DOWNWARD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
   WINDS...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
   GUSTS MORE LIKELY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAVORED CANYONS AND
   PASSES. 
   
   WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ROUGHLY THE PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED CRITICAL
   AREA...HOWEVER THIS COULD BE REDUCED TO A SEE TEXT BY TOMORROW
   SHOULD OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA SHOW THAT WINDS WILL NOT MEET
   CRITERIA.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY TOWARDS THE GA/SC COAST AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE TO
   THE N AND ONE TO THE W...APPROACH. IN MID TO UPPER LEVELS...THE LONG
   WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNING
   TO THE EAST. 
   
   CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND PWAT DISPLAYS SHOW VERY MINIMAL MOISTURE
   ACROSS THE WRN GULF THAT WOULD BE ABLE TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
   GIVEN THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
   CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
   MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
   ON THE EAST SHORES AND THE PANHANDLE GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/24/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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