Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250727
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/WRN TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
   NEAR FL/GA/SC IN RESPONSE TO A NRN PLAINS LOW EJECTING TOWARDS THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG SLY TO SWLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NNEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE WRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...WHILE STRONG WLY TO NWLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
   THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   
   LEE SIDE LOW INVOF SERN CO WILL ELONGATE THEN DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY
   IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DRY AND BREEZY
   CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN STATES. 
   
   IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
   APPROACH BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM/WRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WIND/PERSISTENT DRYNESS
   
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW INVOF SERN CO
   DEVELOPING AS FORECAST. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A NRN PLAINS LOW
   NEAR THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY IN ND...THROUGH ERN NEB...AND ERN
   NM. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH
   PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR CENTRAL AL HAS KEPT STRONG AND GUSTY
   WINDS ACROSS MOST PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING.
   
   THROUGH TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SWD ALONG A TROUGH AXIS
   ALREADY PRESENT FROM THE LOW SSWWD THROUGH ERN NM. MODEL FORECASTS
   SHOW THIS LOW INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT.
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH STRONGER
   SPEEDS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIKELY...WHILE DEEP MIXING WILL
   PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF DRY
   AIR ACROSS THE SWRN STATES...WHILE 00Z RAOB SOUNDING PWAT ANALYSIS
   SHOWS VALUES 15 TO 40% OF NORMAL WILL BE ADVECTING EWD INTO THESE
   AREAS. DRY PROFILES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP
   INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. 
   
   THESE FACTORS IN COMBINATION WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND DROUGHT
   WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD...BECOMING POSITIONED ROUGHLY
   OFFSHORE OF FL/GA/SC BORDERS BY LATER TODAY. GIVEN POSITION OF THE
   HIGH...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
   LIMIT A CRITICAL DESIGNATION...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 MPH
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN FL. EXPANSIVE DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON
   EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN FL. 00Z RAOB PWAT
   ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES 10 TO 30% OF NORMAL ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA
   IN THE SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD AREA. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE EAST COAST
   SHORES AND SRN GULF CAN EXPECT A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
   IN ONSHORE FLOW. DESPITE LIMITING FACTOR OF WINDS TO A CRITICAL
   DESIGNATION...AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST.  
   
   ...SRN TX...
   SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WILL
   SOMEWHAT LIMIT POTENTIAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE
   SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LEE
   SIDE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
   NEAR FL/GA/SC WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR
   20 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
   
   ...SRN CA/NV/NRN AZ...
   INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AS A JET AXIS APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC
   NW SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE
   SURFACE IN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE...FORECASTS DIFFER IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
   LOW...CURRENTLY ANALYZED INVOF SRN NV. SHOULD THIS LOW DEVELOP
   DEEPER AS A FEW MODELS INDICATE...SWLY WINDS AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
   20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS THROUGH FAVORED PASSES
   AND CANYONS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/25/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250857
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/NWRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV/SERN CA/WRN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE NORTHEAST...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS THROUGH SRN
   QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SSWWD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY. AN ARCTIC HIGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD SWD OVER
   THE NRN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION FOLLOWING THIS. 
   
   IN THE SOUTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE OPEN
   ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
   AREA. 
   
   TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEE
   OF THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD...WITH WSWLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NM/NWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WIND/DROUGHT
   
   AN UPPER ZONAL JET SPREADING EWD FROM THE CA/OR COAST WILL MAINTAIN
   LEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF OK. LATEST TRENDS
   HAVE SHOWN INCREASING AGREEMENT IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
   AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NM AND THE PANHANDLE OF
   TX. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
   SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING HIGHER. THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION
   OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
   WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN WITHIN THE OUTLINED CRITICAL AREA. THIS MAY
   BE ADJUSTED IN TOMORROWS FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE AREA...MAINLY
   ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF NM/AZ.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NV/SERN CA/WRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WIND/DROUGHT
   
   WSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIVE SWD
   FROM A LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 IN THE
   AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH FAVORED
   CANYONS AND PASSES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10% IN
   THE LOWER VALLEYS. LACK OF PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
   WATERS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL MAY DROP TO 30 TO 35%
   ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...WHILE PORTIONS OF AL/GA/SC WILL
   DROP TO 25%. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...WHICH WILL HINDER A
   CRITICAL AREA DESIGNATION.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/25/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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