Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 250727
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/WRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR FL/GA/SC IN RESPONSE TO A NRN PLAINS LOW EJECTING TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG SLY TO SWLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NNEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...WHILE STRONG WLY TO NWLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION.
LEE SIDE LOW INVOF SERN CO WILL ELONGATE THEN DEEPEN SOMEWHAT TODAY
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN STATES.
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN NM/WRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WIND/PERSISTENT DRYNESS
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW INVOF SERN CO
DEVELOPING AS FORECAST. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A NRN PLAINS LOW
NEAR THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY IN ND...THROUGH ERN NEB...AND ERN
NM. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR CENTRAL AL HAS KEPT STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS MOST PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING.
THROUGH TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SWD ALONG A TROUGH AXIS
ALREADY PRESENT FROM THE LOW SSWWD THROUGH ERN NM. MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW THIS LOW INTENSIFYING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FLOW ALOFT.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH STRONGER
SPEEDS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIKELY...WHILE DEEP MIXING WILL
PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE SWRN STATES...WHILE 00Z RAOB SOUNDING PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOWS VALUES 15 TO 40% OF NORMAL WILL BE ADVECTING EWD INTO THESE
AREAS. DRY PROFILES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.
THESE FACTORS IN COMBINATION WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND DROUGHT
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SERN STATES...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD...BECOMING POSITIONED ROUGHLY
OFFSHORE OF FL/GA/SC BORDERS BY LATER TODAY. GIVEN POSITION OF THE
HIGH...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT A CRITICAL DESIGNATION...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN FL. EXPANSIVE DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON
EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN FL. 00Z RAOB PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES 10 TO 30% OF NORMAL ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA
IN THE SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD AREA. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE EAST COAST
SHORES AND SRN GULF CAN EXPECT A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ONSHORE FLOW. DESPITE LIMITING FACTOR OF WINDS TO A CRITICAL
DESIGNATION...AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
...SRN TX...
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB WILL
SOMEWHAT LIMIT POTENTIAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE
SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR FL/GA/SC WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR
20 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
...SRN CA/NV/NRN AZ...
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AS A JET AXIS APPROACHES WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC
NW SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE
SURFACE IN AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...FORECASTS DIFFER IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
LOW...CURRENTLY ANALYZED INVOF SRN NV. SHOULD THIS LOW DEVELOP
DEEPER AS A FEW MODELS INDICATE...SWLY WINDS AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS THROUGH FAVORED PASSES
AND CANYONS.
..HURLBUT.. 03/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 250857
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM/NWRN TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV/SERN CA/WRN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE NORTHEAST...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS THROUGH SRN
QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SSWWD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. AN ARCTIC HIGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD SWD OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION FOLLOWING THIS.
IN THE SOUTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA.
TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD...WITH WSWLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NM/NWRN TX...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WIND/DROUGHT
AN UPPER ZONAL JET SPREADING EWD FROM THE CA/OR COAST WILL MAINTAIN
LEE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF OK. LATEST TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN INCREASING AGREEMENT IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW
AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NM AND THE PANHANDLE OF
TX. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING HIGHER. THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION
OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN WITHIN THE OUTLINED CRITICAL AREA. THIS MAY
BE ADJUSTED IN TOMORROWS FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE AREA...MAINLY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF NM/AZ.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN NV/SERN CA/WRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH/WIND/DROUGHT
WSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIVE SWD
FROM A LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 IN THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH FAVORED
CANYONS AND PASSES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10% IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS. LACK OF PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
...SERN STATES...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
WATERS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL MAY DROP TO 30 TO 35%
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...WHILE PORTIONS OF AL/GA/SC WILL
DROP TO 25%. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...WHICH WILL HINDER A
CRITICAL AREA DESIGNATION.
..HURLBUT.. 03/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...