Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290828
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NM...FAR W TX...AND SE
CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS. A
MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD. LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER SYSTEM. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD AND BEHIND IT LOW RH AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL MERIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
AREA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NM...FAR W TX...AND SE CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...MODERATE WINDS...DROUGHT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE
SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
/70S TO NEAR 80 DEG./ WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RH
VALUES ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO BE THE IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
ATTM...WILL INCLUDE SRN PARTS OF THE DELINEATED AREA FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX DESPITE WINDS FORECASTED TO BE WEAKER.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO VERY LOW RH /5 TO 10 PERCENT/ AND VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. BY THE EARLY EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
AS THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE...THUS ENDING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.
...NRN AND ERN AZ AND NWRN NM...
MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON /20-25 MPH/ AS SIMILAR LAPSE RATES AND FLOW EXIST AS IN
THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN MIN RH READINGS
ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
...EAST CENTRAL CO...
LOW RH /AOB 15 PERCENT/ IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ERN CO PLAINS REGION. GUSTY SWLY WINDS NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD
ACT TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE BORDERLINE THREAT IN TERMS OF DURATION OF
THE EVENT...THEREFORE PRECLUDING A CRITICAL THREAT AREA.
..SMITH.. 03/29/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 290850
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SRN NM...PARTS OF W
TX...AND SE AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN CONUS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO SRN CANADA AS THE SYSTEM UPSTREAM BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE N CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE
CRITICAL THREAT AREA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND SRN NM...PARTS OF W
TX...AND SE AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
SYSTEM. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS /700 - 500 MB/. VERY DRY AIR WILL
LIKELY ALREADY BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN LOW AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES
/10 TO 15 PERCENT/. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER A LARGE PART OF THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE WILL AGAIN BE
COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
ATTM...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE ERN BOUNDS TO THE CRITICAL THREAT
AREA. DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AN ERN
EXTENSION TO THE CRITICAL AREA.
...NE AZ...
STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AZ SIMILAR
TO THE CRITICAL AREA FURTHER SE. MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
..SMITH.. 03/29/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...