Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290828
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NM...FAR W TX...AND SE
   CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS.  A
   MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
   OCCUR ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
   UPPER SYSTEM.  THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD AND BEHIND IT LOW RH AND
   GUSTY WINDS WILL MERIT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
   AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NM...FAR W TX...AND SE CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH...MODERATE WINDS...DROUGHT
   
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  AS A
   RESULT...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE
   SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
   GUSTS.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   /70S TO NEAR 80 DEG./ WILL ACT TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  RH
   VALUES ARE GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO BE THE IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
   RANGE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. 
   ATTM...WILL INCLUDE SRN PARTS OF THE DELINEATED AREA FARTHER SOUTH
   ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WEST TX DESPITE WINDS FORECASTED TO BE WEAKER.
    THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO VERY LOW RH /5 TO 10 PERCENT/ AND VERY DRY
   ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THAT WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL.  BY THE EARLY EVENING...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
   AS THE LOW LEVELS STABILIZE...THUS ENDING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ...NRN AND ERN AZ AND NWRN NM...
   
   MODERATE SWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE
   AFTERNOON /20-25 MPH/ AS SIMILAR LAPSE RATES AND FLOW EXIST AS IN
   THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE
   SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN MIN RH READINGS
   ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...EAST CENTRAL CO...
   
   LOW RH /AOB 15 PERCENT/ IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE ERN CO PLAINS REGION.  GUSTY SWLY WINDS NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD
   ACT TO ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...MODEL ENSEMBLE
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE BORDERLINE THREAT IN TERMS OF DURATION OF
   THE EVENT...THEREFORE PRECLUDING A CRITICAL THREAT AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/29/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290850
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SRN NM...PARTS OF W
   TX...AND SE AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
   THE WRN CONUS.  AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER
   MIDWEST INTO SRN CANADA AS THE SYSTEM UPSTREAM BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD
   FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE N CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE DAY 2
   PERIOD.  IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
   WEST...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE
   CRITICAL THREAT AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND SRN NM...PARTS OF W
   TX...AND SE AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...A LEE-SIDE
   SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
   SYSTEM.  THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS /700 - 500 MB/.  VERY DRY AIR WILL
   LIKELY ALREADY BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN LOW AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES
   /10 TO 15 PERCENT/.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
   THE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER A LARGE PART OF THE REGION.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE WILL AGAIN BE
   COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  THIS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.  
   
   ATTM...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE ERN BOUNDS TO THE CRITICAL THREAT
   AREA.  DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AN ERN
   EXTENSION TO THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...NE AZ...
   
   STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AZ SIMILAR
   TO THE CRITICAL AREA FURTHER SE.  MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY
   MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/29/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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