Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300743
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SRN NM...PARTS OF WRN
   TX...AND SE AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ERN PACIFIC
   WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CONUS REGION.  A LEAD UPPER SYSTEM
   EVIDENT ON UPPER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WILL
   MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.  IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
   THE WEST...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER
   THE CRITICAL THREAT AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CENTRAL AND SRN NM...PARTS OF WRN
   TX...AND SE AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...A LEE-SIDE
   SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES IN
   RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM.  A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
   WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
   ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
   REGION.  COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...WILL RESULT IN
   LOW AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES /10 TO 20 PERCENT/.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BE COMMON.
   THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE
   MID-LEVEL WINDS /700 - 500 MB/...WHICH SHOULD IN TURN ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  ATTM...PEAK
   SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ...NE AZ...
     
   MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STRONG SURFACE WINDS /20 TO
   30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AZ.  HOWEVER...RH VALUES
   SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/30/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300848
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF ERN NM...LARGE PART OF WRN
   TX...SWRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
   MIDWEST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  A STRENGTHENING SURFACE CYCLONE
   WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST.  MEANWHILE...A
   SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
   PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE MOVING EWD INTO SW OK AND CENTRAL
   TX.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF ERN NM...LARGE PART OF WRN
   TX...SWRN OK...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS...LOW RH...DROUGHT
   
   A SIMILAR SETUP TO THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON MONDAY
   /DAY 2/.  AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS
   ALOFT /500 MB AOA 70 KTS/ WILL SPREAD OVERTOP THE CRITICAL THREAT
   AREA.  IT IS PROBABLE THAT SUSTAINED SWLY TO WSWLY SURFACE WINDS OF
   20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND
   GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH.  ADDITIONALLY...A WELL FOCUSED DRYLINE IS
   FORECAST TO MIX EWD DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH ACCOMPANYING VERY
   DRY AIR MOVING EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SW AND WRN TX AND INTO SW OK. 
   MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE AMPLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER HEATING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S AND 80S
   WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS.  
   
   MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEALS WITH ERN AND NRN EXTENT TO THE
   CRITICAL AREA.  A REFINEMENT OF THE AREAL OUTLINE MAY BE NEEDED ONCE
   CLARITY OF LOW LEVEL MASS FEATURES BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 03/30/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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